From Deficit to Debt to Disaster?

From the Deficit to the Debt

What Does Chair Powell’s Testimony Mean for the Markets?

What Should an Investor Take from This Blog?

Monday Update: Inflation Continues to Rise

How Big of a Problem Is the Deficit?

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2018

A Look Back at Q2 2018

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2018

Monday Update: A Great Week for Economic Data

Friday Quick Takes: Jobs, Trade War, and More

A Look Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Growth Continues, Signs of Slowing Mount

Market Thoughts for July 2018 [Video]

Q&A with Brad

What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?

Some Thoughts on Technology and Risk

Market Down Again, But Signs Remain Positive

Monday Update: Housing Data Shows Signs of Slowing

China and Technology

Italy: Reflections from an Informed Observer

RIP General Electric

Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 4

Monday Update: Inflation and Retail Sales on the Rise

Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 3

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 14, 2018 [Video]

Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 2

Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 1

What’s Going on with Emerging Markets?

Monday Update: Service Sector Confidence Rises, Trade Deficit Down

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2018

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2018

Black Swans!

A Look Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June

Monday Update: Strong Spending and Job Growth

Market Thoughts for June 2018 [Video]

A Preview of the Jobs Report

Is “Italeave” Greece 2.0?

Monday Update: Housing Slow, Investment Rising

Memorial Day Reflections 2018

Investing Is Hard

Indices: Market-Cap Weighting and Beyond

Different Ways to Be a Passive Investor

Monday Update: Growth Rebound Continues

How I Plan to Invest

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 17, 2018 [Video]

Where Can We Beat the Market?

Are Markets Efficient?

Thoughts on How to Invest

Monday Update: Inflation Pulls Back

A Longer-Term Look at Oil

The Price of Oil: Is It Time to Worry?

A Look Back at the Markets in April and Ahead to May

Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2018

Monday Update: Growth Strong But Slowing

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2018

The National Debt and the Deficit: A Solvable Problem?

Will Quantitative Tightening Sink the Market?

Market Thoughts for May 2018 [Video]

Monday Update: Data Beats Expectations (Almost) Across the Board

Future Stock Returns: Could Things Be Different This Time?

The Stock Market and Your Portfolio: What’s the Big Picture?

More Market Turbulence: Risks Are Rising

Interest Rates Are Up Again—So What?

Monday Update: Retail Sales Rebound

A Look at Confidence—the Final Indicator of Economic Risk

A Look at Employment—the Next Best Indicator of Economic Risk

A Look at the Yield Curve—the Best Indicator of Economic Risk

What Higher Market Volatility Means for Your Portfolio

Monday Update: Inflation on the Rise

What to Watch for This Earnings Season

The Consumer Price Index and the Powell Put: What's the Connection?

Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2018

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2018

Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, April 6, 2018 [Video] 

Monday Update: Business Confidence Pulls Back, But Remains High

The Jobs Report: As Bad As It Looks?

A Look Back at Q1 2018 and Ahead to Q2

Stock Market Update: Time to Pay Attention, Not to Panic

Market Thoughts for April 2018 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Still Confident and Spending

Welcome to the New New Normal

How to Worry Effectively About the Market

The Markets Bounce Back: What’s Going On?

Monday Update: Fed Raises Rates, Tariffs Rock Markets

Beyond Tariffs: More Changing Fundamental Trends

A New Round of Tariffs: Keep Calm—But Pay Attention

Is the Housing Market Rolling Over?

Fed Meeting Preview: Getting to Know Chair Jerome Powell

Monday Update: Industry Strong, But Consumer Spending Slowing

No Economic News Is Good News

Remembering Dr. Stephen Hawking: Lesson for Investors

Could the Great Financial Crisis Happen Again?

Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2018

Monday Update: Jobs Report Exceptionally Strong

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2018

An Economic Forecast: The Jobs Report, Tariffs, and Bear Stearns

Gary Cohn Resigns: The Other Shoe Has Dropped

Market Ups and Downs: What's Going On?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 5, 2018 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, Business Investment Slowing

Market Thoughts for March 2018 [Video]

What the Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Mean for Your Investments

A Look Back, a Look Ahead: An Economic Snapshot

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: A New Sheriff in Town?

Consumer Confidence Hits New Highs—Hooray?

Monday Update: March Rate Hike Seems Likely

The Role VIX ETPs Played in Recent Market Volatility

Will You Lose Money in Bonds?

Emerging Markets: The Long-Term View

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Inflation Rising, Data Weak

The Deficit, the Debt, and Interest Rates

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Stock Market

Lessons from the Market Pullback

Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2018

Monday Update: Service Sector Strong, Trade Data Weak

The Stock Market Stands Corrected: Time to Worry?

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2018

Consumer Spending Headed for a Slowdown?

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Strong Data and Upside Surprises

A Scary Week in the Stock Market—But Also Pretty Normal

Jobs Report: Good, But Not Perfect

Market Thoughts for February 2018 [Video]

A Look Back at the Markets and Economy in January

Dow Drops 500 Points: Is the Sky Falling?

An Economic State of the Union

Monday Update: Strong Data Continues, Despite Some Weakening

What Does the Decline of the Dollar Mean?

Why Your Portfolio Didn’t Beat the Dow

Should We Be Worried About a Trade War?

Corporate Earnings for the Close of 2017: Good Despite the Headlines?

Monday Update: Data Strong, But Pulling Back a Bit

Waiting for the Government Shutdown (Again)

Appearance on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, January 17, 2018 [Video]

The Tax Bill Becomes Real: Cash Repatriation

Dow 26K: Is This One Different?

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Prices Steady, Consumers Spending

Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, January 11, 2018 [Video]

What Do Higher Interest Rates Mean for Investments?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, January 11, 2018 [Video]

What Investors (Should) Know Ahead of Time

Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2018

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2018

Monday Update: Economy Still Strong, But Signs of Slowing

Dow 25K: A Look Beyond the Headlines

What to Watch for in 2018: Housing and Auto Sales

A Quick Note to Start the New Year

Market Thoughts for January 2018 [Video]

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumer Confidence Pulls Back

As 2018 Dawns, There Is Much to Be Grateful For

Is It Time to Rotate Out of International Equities?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 26, 2017 [Video]

Is Global Diversification Worth the Risks? (Part II)

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Housing Surprises to the Upside

Merry Christmas to All

Should You Invest in Hedge Funds?

Is Renewable Energy Contributing to U.S. Energy Supply?

2017: A Dickens of a Year

Monday Update: Consumers Continue to Earn and Spend

What the FCC’s Decision on Net Neutrality Rules Means for Consumers

What to Expect from the Fed in 2018

What Does the Alabama Election Mean for the Markets?

Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2017

Monday Update: Mixed Results, Healthy Overall

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2017

More Trends to Watch: Millennials and the Global Economy

3 Current Economic Trends to Watch

The Tax Bill: What Matters Most for Taxpayers

Monday Update: Consumer Confidence Soars to 17-Year High

Market Thoughts for December 2017 [Video]

Dow 24K: Cue the Fireworks?

Bitcoin: Price Versus Value

Watch Out for the Risks in Washington

Consumer Confidence and Expectations: It’s All About the Data

Monday Update: Data Pulls Back, Economy Remains Strong

Active Versus Passive Investment Management: A Different Take

Thanksgiving Food for Thought: The Parable of the Turkey

Is a New Crisis Brewing in Germany and Europe?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, November 20, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Waning Storm Effects, Growth Resumes

What the Tax Bills Could Mean for You

What Is the Yield Curve Anyway?

Stock Market Pullbacks and Bounce Backs

Should We Be Worried About the Fed’s Balance Sheet?

Appearance on TheStreet, November 14, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Slightly Less Confident

What Will the Markets Do in 2018?

Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2017

Saudi Arabia and the Republican Tax Plan: Will the Markets React?

Monday Update: Positive Data Trends Continue, Hurricane Effects Fade

Economically Speaking? Things Are Really (Really) Good

Market Thoughts for November 2017 [Video]

Why Does the Fed Matter?

Halfway Through Earnings: More Treats Than Tricks?

Monday Update: Surprisingly Good Data, Despite Hurricanes

The State of the Market: Part 5

The State of the Market: Part 4

The State of the Market: Part 3

Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Growth Remains Solid

The State of the Market: Part 2

The State of the Market: Part 1

Black Monday Remembered

Where’s the Bubble?

Monday Update: Strong Performance After the Storms

Should We Be Worried About Earnings Growth?

Still in 1999? The Timing May Be Shifting

Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2017

Monday Update: Very Positive Data, Due in Part to Storms

Jobs Report: Weak Headline, Strong Details

What Should We Expect from This Month’s Jobs Report?

The Role of Financial Planners: Lessons from Nashville

Market Thoughts for October 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Despite Hurricanes, Solid Economic Data

Improving Fundamentals Lead to a Strong Third Quarter

Appearance on TheStreet, September 28, 2017 [Video]

What Does the Tax Proposal Mean for the Markets?

North Korea: A Slow-Motion Crisis?

Why the German Election Matters

Monday Update: Hurricanes Continue to Affect the Data

Is Debt Risk Moving Back into the Spotlight?

Oil Prices Collapse: Is the Energy Industry Going Back to the Future?

Where Does the Fed Go from Here?

What Are Investors Worried About?

Appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, September 18, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Hurricane Harvey Leads to Disappointing Data

Is the Bitcoin Ride Over?

A Broader View on Inflation: Looking at the Forest, Not the Trees

What’s Behind Recent Stock Market Records?

Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2017

Monday Update: Strong Business Confidence Continues

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2017

Investing in Troubled Times: Navigating North Korea, Harvey, and Irma

Market Thoughts for September 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Outlook Positive for Faster Growth

Is the Employment Boom Still On?

What Consumer Debt Levels Say About the Business Cycle

Monday Update: Signs of a Slowdown?

And the 2017 Bubble of the Year Award Goes To . . .

What Happens to the Stock Market in Times of War?

Monday Update: Retail Sales and Confidence Bounce Back

The Dog That Did Not Bark: Why Isn’t the Market Reacting to Drama?

The 4-Letter “C” Word for Investors: Cash

How Not to Be Wrong, by Jordan Ellenberg: A Book Review

Identifying My Mistakes (and What I Did About Them)

Monday Update: Inflation Low, Not Dropping Further

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, August 11, 2017 [Video]

Is This Normal?

North Korea and the Markets: Should We Be Worried?

10 Years Later: Looking Back at the 2007 Financial Crisis

Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2017

Monday Update: Strong Jobs Suggest Recovery Continues

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2017

Dow 22K: Are We Seeing a Pattern?

Market Thoughts for August 2017 [Video]

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Mixed Data, Positive Overall

The Good News (and Bad News) About Politics and the Markets

The Rational Optimist: A Response to the Doomsayers

More on Investing and Time Frames

Wage Growth: Real Vs. Imaginary

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 24, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Housing Bears Watching

Small Gratitudes and Mindful Moments

Here Comes Another Bus: The Debt Ceiling

Are Current Stock Prices Reasonable?

Washington and the Markets

Monday Update: Inflation and Retail Sales Soft, but Industrial Production Solid

Q2 Earnings Outlook: Can Companies Continue to Beat Expectations?

New Market Highs: Intelligence Vs. Wisdom

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2017

Monday Update: Positive Surprises Suggest Growth Continues

The Business Cycle Is Not Over Yet

Does a Low VIX Mean High Risk?

Market Thoughts for July 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Confident but Not Spending

The Economy and Markets Mid-Year 2017

Here Comes the Bus: The Problem with Passive Investing

Looking for the Next Bus: ETFs and Passive Investing

Oil Prices: Will Things Be Different This Time?

Monday Update: Housing Still Strong

Volatility—It’s a Real Drag

Time Horizons and Why They Matter

2017 Vs. 1999: Now What Should We Do?

2017 Vs. 1999: Could It Be Different This Time?

Monday Update: Weak Economic Data Across the Board

2017 Vs. 1999: When Will the Storm Hit?

Appearance on CNBC's Trading Nation, June 15, 2017 [Video]

If 2017 = 1999, Does 2018 = 2000?

1999 v2.0: How Similar Are 1999 and 2017?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 13, 2017 [Video]

Appearance on TheStreet, June 13, 2017 [Video]

Some Thoughts on the Fed and Recent Tech Stock Performance

Monday Update: Service Sector Down, Remains Healthy

From Super Thursday to Freaky Friday: Why Are Markets Rising?

Super Thursday: What It Means (and What It Doesn’t)

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2017

Monday Update: Economy Starting to Hit Its Limits

Market Thoughts for June 2017 [Video]

Is This 1999 v2.0?

Lessons in Preparing a Market and Economic Outlook

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Weak Headlines but Positive Details

What’s Up with Bitcoin?

Has Market Complacency Reached a Peak?

The Connection Between Economic Policies and Political Populism

A Deeper Look at Politics and Populism

Monday Update: Housing and Industry Look Strong

Opioids, Airlines, and Investment Risk: The Common Denominator

No, It’s Still Not Time to Worry About the Markets

Washington Turmoil Creates Uncertainty for Investors

A Reminder About the Big Picture

Monday Update: Inflation Low, Confidence and Spending Up

Is China Throwing Out Recession Signals?

Distinguishing Between Signals and Noise

Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2017

Monday Update: Outlook Positive Despite Mixed Results

Economic Slowdown Averted?

Markets and U.S. Politics: Time + Distance = A Different Perspective

A Week in Budapest

Market Thoughts for May 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: More Signs of Slowing Growth

Sell in May and Go Away?

The Trump Tax Plan: What You Need to Know

Political Risk Update: Responding to Reader Comments

Political Risk Update: France and the U.S. Budget

Monday Update: Despite Some Weakness, Growth Continues

When Assessing the Economy, Mind the Gaps

With French Election, Potential for Economic Shake-Up

Why “Run in Circles, Scream and Shout” Is the Wrong Response

Politics, Taxes, and Other Fun Stuff

Monday Update: Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Strong Sentiment

Mr. Trump Goes to Washington

Moment of Truth: Will the Market Meet Expectations This Earnings Season?

Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2017

Appearance on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report, April 6, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Amid Continuing Growth, Some Signs of Weakness

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2017

March Jobs Report Preview

A Wall Street Perspective

Market Weather Report: Spring 2017

Market Thoughts for April 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, Just Not Spending Much

The Market’s April Fools’ Day Jokes

Today's GDP Report (and What to Expect in Q2)

Brexit Begins: Should U.S. Investors Care?

Congress, the Debt Ceiling, and the Stock Market

Monday Update: Housing Market Keeps Tightening, Business Orders Still Growing

The Health Care Vote and the Stock Market

Investors Feeling More Greedy Than Fearful

What About Yesterday’s Stock Market Pullback?

Is Spring on the Way for the Economy?

Monday Update: Mixed Data, But Continued Growth Likely

Three Steps and a Stumble

Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2017

Market Valuations and Future Returns

How Can We Tell If the Market Is Overvalued?

Monday Update: Strong Jobs Report Paves Way for Rate Hike

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2017

February Jobs Report Preview

The Best of Times, the Worst of Times

Earnings Update: As Expected, Companies Beat Expectations

Monday Update: More Surprising Gains in Confidence

It’s Not All About US

Dow 21K: How Far Can the Rally Run?

Market Thoughts for March 2017 [Video]

Trump’s Address to Congress: What to Watch For

Monday Update: Housing Continues to Improve, Fed Remains Confident

The Price Is Right—Or Is It?

What Explains Long-Term Returns?

Another Look at the Long Run

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumers Lead the Way

Thinking About the Long Run

Why Isn’t Political Turmoil Shaking the Market?

What a Difference a Year Makes

The Stock Market and Me: It’s Complicated

Monday Update: Plenty of Data This Week

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2017 [Video]

Long-Term Needs, Short-Term Focus

The Velocity of Money: 2017 Edition

Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2017

Monday Update: Picking Up Speed

Two Cheers for the Jobs Report

For the Market, Every Day’s Groundhog Day

What Will the Fed Do Next?

Market Thoughts for February 2017 [Video]

Political Turmoil Could Restrain Market in 2017

Monday Update: More Signs of Slowing

How a Border Tax Could Backfire on the U.S. Economy

Dow 20K: Just a Number?

Trump’s Trade Agenda: Benefits and Costs

Rates May Rise Faster Than Anyone Expects

Monday Update: Growing But Slowing

Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, January 23, 2017 [Video]

The Economy Under President Trump

Earnings, Valuations, and the Stock Market

Q4 Earnings: Expect to Beat Expectations?

Monday Update: Retail Spending Weaker Than Expected

Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2017

Confidence: What Is It, Anyway?

Economic Recovery: All Smoke and Mirrors?

Monday Update: 2017 Off to a Good Start

Solid Jobs Report Confirms Strength of Labor Market

Symptoms, Diseases, and the Fed

What Could Go Wrong in 2017?

Consumers and Business Head Confidently into New Year

Market Thoughts for January 2017 [Video]

As 2017 Dawns, Much to Be Grateful For

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 28, 2016 [Video]

3 Questions Investors Should Ask in 2017

Monday Update: Confidence Improves as Consumer Fundamentals Pause

No Cash, No Carry: The Demonetization of the Indian Economy

Here Comes Santa Claus

Monday Update: Data Less Encouraging

The Boston Tea Party and Democracy Today

Fed’s More Hawkish Outlook Surprises Markets

The Stock Market Giveth and the Bond Market Taketh Away

Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2016

Monday Update: Business and Consumer Confidence Still Rising

Dow 20,000 in Sight

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 8, 2016 [Video]

Floating-Rate Strategies: You Might Not Get What You Want

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2016

Should I Invest Outside the U.S.?

Monday Update: More Strong Data for Consumers and Business

Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?

Market Thoughts for December 2016 [Video]

Problems . . .

The Stock Market's Rise: Will It Continue?

Market Records and Your Investments

Monday Update: Home Sales and Business Orders Strong

Black Friday by the Numbers

Post-Election Bond Rates and the Stock Market

Monday Update: Consumers Still Shopping

2017 Forecast: Things Are Looking Up

Post-Election Bond Yields and Fixed Income

The Trouble with “Low-Volatility” Strategies, Part II

Trump’s Policies and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Monday Update: Better Than Expected

The Trump Era: What Happens Now?

The Trump Bounce and the Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2016

Election Surprise: For the Economy, Maybe Just Another Bump in the Road

Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, November 9, 2016 [Video]

Get Out and Vote!

Monday Update: Generally Good News Points to Continuing Growth

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2016

In Austin, Grateful to Be Giving Back

3 Big Themes that Won't End with the Election

Market Thoughts for November 2016 [Video]

Election Countdown: One Week to Go

Monday Update: Amid Disappointing Data, Economy Still Growing

Strong GDP Report: Treat or Trick?

The Employment Boom Gets Louder

Reasons to Be Cheerful About the Market

What Does the AT&T/Time Warner Merger Mean for the Market?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 24, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Industry Does Better as Housing Slows

What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

Inflation and Everything Else

Remembering Black Monday

For Halloween, Some Thoughts on Active Management

Monday Update: The Consumer Is Back (Sort Of)

Is Global Diversification Worth the Risks?

The Market Today: Shades of 1987?

What Does the Election Mean for Your Portfolio?

Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2016

Monday Update: Business Sentiment Bounces Back

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2016

September Jobs Report Preview

Should We Be Worried About Deutsche Bank?

The Return of Diversification?

Market Thoughts for October 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Stay Strong

Outlook for October and the Fourth Quarter

Looking Ahead: 4 Big-Picture Themes

The Election and Market Worries

What I Learned from the Presidential Debate

Monday Update: Housing Steady, Fed Eyes December

Presidential Debate Preview

Fed Holds but Hints at December Hike

Fundamentals Vs. Policy: It’s All About Growth

What Will the Fed Do?

Monday Update: Economy Stays in Slow-Go, Not Go-Go

The Time Horizon Problem

Boom Times Ahead (Did I Really Just Say That?)

Great News—Median Income Rises!

September Volatility: What It Means (and Doesn’t Mean)

Monday Update: An Unpleasant Surprise from the Service Sector

Bad Day on the Stock Market

Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2016

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2016

Monday Update: Consumers Rocking, Business Rolling Over

Employment: The Big Picture

Market Thoughts for September 2016 [Video]

August Employment Report Preview

September Market Preview

What About the National Debt?

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, August 29, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Home Sales and Durable Goods Continue to Improve

Book Review: Connectography

New GICS Sector Could Benefit REITs

Monday Update: Housing and Manufacturing Still Improving

How Brexit Could Impact Your Real Estate Holdings

The Trouble with “Low-Volatility” Strategies

Monday Update: Consumers Take a Break

Stocks: Partying Like It’s 1999

Where Growth Comes From

The Opposite of Productivity

Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2016

Monday Update: Business Still Expanding, Hiring Strong

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2016

Employment Report Preview

The Day I Broke My Brain (Er, Smartphone)

Market Thoughts for August 2016 [Video]

Protectionism and Investing

Monday Update: Despite Recent Strong News, GDP Growth Disappoints

Why You Should Have a Financial Advisor

Looking at Future Portfolio Returns

Looking at Future Stock Returns

Looking at Future Bond Returns

Monday Update: Housing Continues to Grow

How to Spot a Bubble: 2016 Edition

More About Student Debt: A Justified Investment

Presidential Politics and the Stock Market

U.S. Financial Markets: Strength Amid Global Turmoil

Monday Update: Three Strong Weeks in a Row

Lower Yields: Not the Typical Risk-Off Trade

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 14, 2016 [Video]

Should We Be Worried About the Chinese Currency?

The Market’s New High Score

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2016

Monday Update: More Positive Surprises

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2016

Tesla Crashes, Faulty Airbags, and How We Perceive Risk

Record-Low Interest Rates: Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box, July 5, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Positive Surprises Across the Board

Brexit and the Fourth of July

Market Thoughts for July 2016 [Video]

3 Lessons from Brexit

The Case for Brexit

Appearance on Bloomberg TV, June 28, 2016 [Video]

Will Brexit Crash the Stock Market?

Monday Update: Brexit Raises Economic Risks

Brexit After All

How to Be Wrong: Brexit Edition

Beyond Brexit: The Longer-Term Risks

Countdown to the Brexit Vote

Monday Update: More of the Same

Robo-Advice and the Future of the Financial Industry

What the Bond Market Is Telling Us

What Is the Market Really Saying?

The Bond Markets: Accentuating the Negative

Monday Update: Consumers Feel Confident (For the Moment)

Things Fall Apart? Thoughts on the Brexit Vote

Bear Market Worries: The Big Picture

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2016

Bear Market Risks: Commodities and the Fed

Monday Update: Dismal Jobs Report Raises Concerns

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2016

Market Thoughts for June 2016 [Video]

What to Worry About: A Bear Market

What Not to Worry About

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Housing Strong, Business Slow

Memorial Day Reflections

Important Vs. Urgent in Investing

Wage Growth and Spending: A Big-Picture Look

The Real Story Behind a Fed Rate Increase

Monday Update: Better Data Continues

Wall Street’s Songs of the Summer

Worried About the Election? Don't Revamp Your Portfolio Yet

5 Economic Research Tools for the Everyday Investor

Managing Your Biases

Monday Update: Consumers Surprise to the Upside

Strong Retail Sales Show Consumers Can Spend—If They Want To

Thoughts on Wage Growth

Black Swans and Wildfires

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2016

Monday Update: Economic Data Mixed But Improving

How to Sell High and Buy Low

The Presidential Race: Uncertainty Left and Right

Why Are My Investments Doing Badly?

Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2016

Monday Update: Spring’s Not Here Yet

Market Thoughts for May 2016 [Video]

More Thoughts on Retirement Investing

Thoughts on Building a Retirement Portfolio

3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery

Why You Should Stop Worrying About Slow Growth

Monday Update: Housing Data Weak But Momentum Still Positive

The Risk of Higher Oil Prices

The Employment Boom Is Pretty Much Here

New York Primary Results Should Help Reassure Markets

How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

How High Are Taxes, Really?

Economic Growth and the $15 Minimum Wage

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, April 13, 2016 [Video]

The Election and the Financial Markets

Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much

Appearance on TheStreet, April 10, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: More Slow Progress

Where Will Economic Growth Come From?

Everybody's Worried About Growth

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 6, 2016 [Video]

Stock Market Earnings Priced for Disaster (But Not to Worry)

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2016

Monday Update: Slow but Real Economic Improvement

Market Thoughts for April 2016 [Video]

Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2016

A Preview of the March Employment Report

Interest Rates: Lower for Longer It Is

Inflation: Three Shades of Gray

Monday Update: Despite Disappointing News, Slow Growth Should Continue

Interest Rates: Lower for Longer, or Faster and Farther?

The Growing Money Supply—Not a Risk

The Velocity of Money: Safe at Any Speed?

Monday Update: A Mixed Bag for Economic News

Will We Have a Depression?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 17, 2016 [Video]

The Student Loan Problem (Or Is It?)

How Likely Is a Recession?

Changing Political Trends: The U.S. and Europe

Monday Update: Quiet But Positive

Are You Ready for . . . the Coming Economic Boom?

ECB Stimulus: A Desperate Move?

The Presidential Election and Free Trade

The Stock Market: Reasons for Optimism

Monday Update: Signs of Spring

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2016

Looking for the Next Crisis

Monthly Market Risk Update

Market Thoughts for March 2016 [Video]

It’s All About the Jobs

Monday Update: Watch What Consumers Do, Not What They Say

Using Analysis to Improve Lives

The Presidential Election and the Market

Opportunities in Adversity: The Dollar

Opportunities in Adversity: Oil

Monday Update: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

More About Negative Interest Rates

Assessing Risks in the Rest of the World

Is It Worth Investing in Emerging Markets?

Monday Update: Retail Spending Better Than Expected

More Volatility—Plus More Good News

What the Heck Is Going On in the Markets?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2016 [Video]

The Market’s New Year’s Resolution

Bear Market Ahead?

Monday Update: Behind Poor Headline Numbers, More Encouraging News

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2016

Studies in Economic Failure: Japan Edition

Appearance on TV6's The Ryan Report, January 24, 2016 [Video]

Negative on Japan’s Negative Interest Rates

Market Thoughts for February 2016 [Video]

A Look Back at 2015: Lessons Learned

Monday Update: U.S. Consumers Strong, Industry Struggling

Why the Weak GDP Report Is Nothing to Worry About

From Integration to Collapse: Technology and Global Trends

Low Oil Prices: The Big Picture

The Costs of Low Oil Prices

Monday Update: Growth Remains Healthy, but Slowing

The Road to Recession

The Bungee Jump Market

Low Oil Prices Hammer Markets

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Despite Some Weak Data, Economy Doing Well

Market Plunges Deeper, but No Recession in Sight

What If I’m Wrong About the Markets?

Time to Sell Everything? Not Quite

Why Oil Prices Are Declining

Monday Update: Strong Jobs, Weak Manufacturing

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2016

What’s Going On in China?

Market Thoughts for January 2016 [Video]

Market Downturn: How Bad Could This Get?

Global Moment: Saudi Arabia, China, and the U.S. Markets

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, but Housing Slows

Examining the Theory of a 7-Year Cycle in U.S. Financial Markets

Navigating Mutual Fund Results

Avoiding Shortsightedness: Looking at Returns for the Next 10 Years

Monday Update: Mixed Data, But More Signs of a Slowdown

Renewal and Hope for Christmas

Where Does the U.S. Dollar Go from Here?

Core Truths About Investing

Monday Update: U.S. Good, Abroad Not So Good

How Do Rising Rates Affect Bond Investments?

Rising Interest Rates, Part 3: What About Investments?

Rising Interest Rates, Part 2: Exploring the Gap

Rising Interest Rates, Part 1: Return to the Natural Level?

Monday Update: An Encouraging Week, Overall

What Keynes and Hayek Can Teach Us About Economics

What’s Wrong with the Way We Measure Risk?

What’s New in the Bank Loan (Floating-Rate) Space?

Gratitudes 2015

Monday Update: More Slow But Steady

Appearance on TheStreet, December 4, 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2015

Taking a Slowdown Seriously

Market Thoughts for December 2015 [Video]

Is Saving Back in Style?

Yuan Becomes Reserve Currency

Monday Update: Slow But Stabilizing

Farm Living Is the Life for Me: A Turkey’s Story

New Risks in the Middle East

Immigration: The Next Issue to Rethink

Monday Update: Mixed Data But Signs of Future Growth

U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse

Fed Minutes Indicate “Solid” Economy, but What Does That Mean?

Some Thoughts on Paris

A Review of The Courage to Act, by Ben Bernanke

Monday Update: Happy Consumers, Still Not Shopping

A Quick Update from the National Conference

A Morning of Giving Back

Are We at a Market Peak?

What Do You Ask Ben Bernanke?

Monday Update: Green Shoots in November

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2015

Urgency Vs. Importance in Investing

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, November 3, 2015 [Video]

Quick Takes: Momentum Vs. Value, China Demographics, Globalization

Market Thoughts for November 2015 [Video]

The 2016 Outlook: 3 Important Issues

Monday Update: The Slowdown Continues

Slow GDP Growth: A Trick of the Numbers?

The Fed Surprises Again—But with a Treat, Not a Trick

Debt Ceiling News: Washington Steps Back from the Brink

Is China Selling U.S. Treasuries, and Do We Care?

Monday Update: Housing Surprises, But Still Signs of Recent Weakness

A More Detailed Look at Housing Supply and the Economy

A More Detailed Look at Housing Demand

The Debt Ceiling Countdown Continues

Earnings Vs. Revenue: What to Look for This Earnings Season

Monday Update: The Good and Bad—But No Ugly

Looking at Inflation: Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 14, 2015 [Video]

Wall Street Vs. Main Street: Is Walmart Caught in the Middle?

Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Is a Good Idea

Back to the Basics on Stocks

Monday Update: Generally Positive, But Concerns Ahead?

The Failure of Politics

More on “Snowdown” Vs. Slowdown: What About the Markets?

Are We Really Seeing a Slowdown, or Is It More of a “Snowdown”?

Appearance on Risk & Reward, October 5, 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2015

Monday Update: Disappointing News on Employment

Looking for More Market Crash Signals in the Economic Data

Market Thoughts for October 2015 [Video]

Are There Signs of a Potential Market Crash in the Data?

Being a Good Investor: How to Worry in a Productive Way

Another Day, Another Stock Market Drop. So What?

Monday Update: More Slow and Steady Economic News

Yellen’s Speech: Much Ado About . . . What?

Thinking About a Global Slowdown: What Are the Biggest Threats?

From Gilded Age to Progressive Era: Are We Near the End of a Social Cycle?

Should We Prepare for Another Government Shutdown?

Monday Update: Better Than It Looks

The Fed: Is No News Good News, or Just Bad News Taking Its Time?

The Dog That Did Not Bark: Republican Debate Ignores Economy

What Would You Ask Ben Bernanke?

Will She or Won’t She . . . Raise Rates, That Is?

Monday Update: The Good and the Bad in the Economic Data

A Requiem for the BRICs

Welcome Back to Politics and Some Familiar Threats to the Economy

What Can We Learn from Yesterday’s Market Melt-Up?

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Pretty Good, Overall

With Labor Day Near, What Can We Take from the August Jobs Report?

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2015

Market Thoughts for September 2015 [Video]

China’s Role in the U.S. Market Correction

With Further Market Declines Likely, Keep the Long Run in Mind

Monday Update: Back to Normal

China and the U.S. Stock Market

Good Economic News May Not Curb Market Turbulence

The Market’s Downside Risk: How Much Further Could It Fall?

Appearance on Varney & Co., August 24, 2015 [Video]

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Holding Steady

As Market Fears Grow, Stay Focused on the Long Term

Appearance on Mornings with Maria, August 20, 2015 [Video]

Market Reality Check: Yesterday’s Big Decline

The Fed: Much Ado About (Pretty Much) Nothing

Housing: A Return to Normalcy

China's Bubble Trouble

Monday Update: Steady as She Goes

5 Reasons the System Isn’t Broken

Market Pullback? Maybe Not

China’s Currency Devaluation: Possible Consequences

China’s Yuan Devaluation: What You Need to Know

Monday Update: Slowdown Starts to Speed Up

A Good-News Week for the Economy

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2015

Market Thoughts for August 2015 [Video]

Bubble Trouble: An Update on Market Valuations

Monday Update: More Slow and Steady Growth

Is Now a Good Time to Invest in Energy?

In the News: The Fed and GDP Growth

Where Is the Wage Growth?

China’s Stock Market Plunges Again (But Not to Worry)

Monday Update: Better U.S. Economic Data Points to Continuing Recovery

Employment: Partying Like It’s 1973

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 23, 2015 [Video]

Social Security Faces Its First Reckoning

Is Hillary Clinton Going to Raise Capital Gains Taxes?

Investing in Gold: Don’t Rule It Out

Monday Update: Disappointing U.S. Data, Encouraging International News

Thinking Ahead: The Next Major War

A Closer Look at the Chinese Stock Market

Is U.S. Economic Growth Headed for a Slowdown?

Amid Turbulence, Global Financial System Stays Steady

Greek Debt Deal Looks Like a Temporary Fix

Monday Update: U.S. Posts Solid Data, China and Greece Settle Down

Policy Maneuvers Losing Power to Steer the Markets

Chaotic Day in the Markets: A Reminder to Plan Ahead

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2015

The Chinese Stock Market Decline: What It Could Mean for the U.S.

Monday Update: U.S. Solid, Greece and China Rock Markets

Market Thoughts for July 2015 [Video]

The Truth Behind the 7-Year Market Cycle

Could What’s Happening with Greek Banks Happen Here?

U.S. Stock Market: Should You Be Worried?

U.S. Economy Grows, Greek Debt Default Looms

What Happens to My Bond Investments When Rates Rise?

Why Greece Matters

Threats to Growth: Boomers' Retirement, Millennials' Student Debt

Greece, the Eurozone, and Jury Duty

What Do Rising Interest Rates Mean for the Housing Market?

The Problems of Success: Inflation

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 18, 2015 [Video]

The U.S. Economy: 3 Reasons for Optimism

Europe in the Next Five Years

Your Investments in the Next 30 Years

Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks? Part 2

What Happens If Greece Falls Off the Debt Cliff?

Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 10, 2015 [Video]

Europe and the U.S.: A Look Back at the Past 3 Years

Greece and the Stock Market: Time for Concern?

What Population Changes Mean for Economic Growth

Market Thoughts for June 2015 [Video]

A Walk Through Today’s Strong Jobs Report

Greece: Teenager with a Credit Card

U.S. Power and the South China Sea

Where Does Economic Growth Come From?

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2015

U.S. GDP and Slow Growth

Tomorrow’s Big Problems: 4 Issues to Watch

4 Things I Believe About Investing

Today’s Economic News: Expectations and Reality

Appearance on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell, May 26, 2015 [Video]

Memorial Day Reflections

The Book of Jobs

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 3

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 2

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1: The Natural Interest Rate

Is Free Trade Really Good for Everyone?

Free Trade and American Politics

Interest Rates and the Bond Market: Why You Should Care

Why Greece Really Matters

Greece and China: Risks Continue to Simmer

April Jobs Report: Things Are Looking Up

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 7, 2015 [Video]

Janet Yellen’s Warning About the Stock Market

What Happens If Greece Defaults on Its Debt?

Market Thoughts for May 2015 [Video]

Two Articles I Wish I Had Written: On GDP and Shadow Labor

Yuan Vs. Dollar: The Fight of the Century

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2015

The Fed's as Confused as Everyone Else

Q1 GDP Growth: Negatives and Positives

Considering an Economic Slowdown

Oil and Commodity Prices: Back to the Future

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 24, 2015 [Video]

Lessons from the Nasdaq’s New High

The Market and the Economy: Shades of 2004?

The Housing Market: Dead or Hibernating?

China: The Other International Risk

Greek Exit from the Eurozone Looms

What Is the Stock Market Doing Today?

Interest Rates and Market Behavior: 5, 10, and 20 Years Ago

Employment: 5, 10, and 20 Years Ago

Retail Sales Data: “Snowdown,” Not Slowdown

No News Is Good News for the Economy

The Economy: Boom! Boom. Boom?

Job Creation: What Is Normal, Anyway?

Earnings and Expectations

Interpreting the Employment Data

Market Thoughts for April 2015 [Video]

Employment Report Hits a Big Pothole

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2015

Don’t Be Fooled by These 3 Investing Myths

Europe and the Currency Wars

Currency Wars or Economic Readjustment?

Is the U.S. Losing the Currency Wars?

Market Drops, but It’s Not Time to Panic

Looking for Things to Worry About

Is the Economy Under the Weather?

Warning Signs for the Stock Market

How to Capitalize on a Reversal of Trends

A Return to a More Mysterious Fed

Book Review: The Checklist Manifesto

Fast Failure in Investing

The Return of the Debt Limit

Slow Failure in Investing (It Happens)

Understanding the Risk of Investment Failure

The Way We Measure Risk Is Wrong

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2015

Returns Over the Next Decade

Employment Rises Strongly Again: So, What’s the Problem?

Is Use-Based Pricing a Bad Thing?

Does Net Neutrality Matter?

Market Thoughts for March 2015 [Video]

The Role of Bonds in Portfolios Today

Ways to Think About Net Neutrality

Negative Interest Rates in Europe

The Hidden Hand of Inflation

Greece and the Minsky Moment

Will She or Won’t She? Janet Yellen and Interest Rates

The Outside View: The U.S. Labor Market

Bubble Trouble?

Are We in Tech Bubble Territory?

Book Review: “Flashpoints,” by George Friedman

Where Does the U.S. Fit in the European Mess?

Appearance on Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo, February 12, 2015 [Video]

What Will the Market Return This Year?

The Outside View: The U.S. Economy

The Outside View: Russia

Where the Real Risks Are: Europe and Russia

Two Economic Risks for the U.S.

Another Great Employment Report, But Can It Be Trusted?

The Outside View: India

The Outside View: Brazil

Market Thoughts for February 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2015

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, February 3, 2015

Making Sense of Mutual Fund Gains and Losses

Fourth-Quarter GDP Isn’t as Bad as It Looks

The U.S. Economy: 5 Key Stories

More Market Turbulence

Storm Report: About to Be Crushed by Glaciers

Greek Election Creates Unease in Europe

The ECB Pulls the Trigger on Stimulus

Why Did My Investments Do Badly in 2014?

Japan: The Outside View

Europe: The Outside View

Time to Worry About the Stock Market?

China: The Outside View

Three Ways to Assess a Country's Economic Future

Which Countries Matter?

Taking the Global View

Jobs Report: Amid Good News, a Darker Cloud

Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Europe

Do Falling Oil Prices and Interest Rates Spell Trouble?

Stock Market Declines, World Ends—Again

Market Thoughts for January 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2015

Oil Prices and the Economy

Lessons in Economics: Keynes Vs. Hayek

Risk-Reduction Strategies: Advantages and Disadvantages

Worried About a Dollar Collapse? Don't Be . . . Yet

What Determines a Currency's Value?

Hope, Sacrifice, and the Meaning of Christmas

Holiday Gratitudes 2014

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, December 23, 2014

Premortem: How the Global Doomsayers Got It Wrong in 2015

Some Geopolitical Thoughts About Cuba and the U.S.

Russia and Cuba: Exploring a Common Theme

Thoughts on the Russian Currency Crisis

Market Turbulence: Nothing to Worry About Yet

Premortem: The Stock Market in 2015

Want to Avert Failure? Try Doing a Premortem

Who Suffers from Cheap Oil?

The New International Economy

Is the Price Drop in Oil All Good?

Economic Risks Recede, Political Risks Return

Where Are the Opportunities in the Global Markets in 2015?

Christmas Comes Early for Employment Statistics

An Updated Look at the Stock Market

Book Review: "Thinking, Fast and Slow," by Daniel Kahneman

What Does Black Friday Mean for the Economy?

Market Thoughts for December 2014

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2014

Unsustainable Trends: A Closer Look at Limits

U.S. Economic Growth Continues

What Makes an Unsustainable Trend?

Housing Market Closes In on Normal

Expressing Gratitude for the Good That Comes Our Way

3 Trends That Won’t Last Forever

The U.S. and Europe: An International Perspective

Japan Falls into Recession

A Deep Look at Corporate Profit Margins

What Would Another Asian Crisis Mean for the U.S.?

Thoughts on Japan, China, and the Eurozone

Lies, Damned Lies, and Wage Growth

The October Employment Report: More Good News

Problems Abroad: What to Worry About

Could Problems Abroad Derail the U.S. Economic Recovery?

Market Thoughts for November 2014

Upcoming Appearances

Tune into CNBC's Power Lunch on Friday, July 20, at 2:15 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk markets. 

Tune into Bloomberg Radio on Tuesday, August 7, at 4:15 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk markets. 


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