The Independent Market Observer

Will December’s S&P 500 Return Matter for 2024?

November 30, 2023

In my October blog post, I concluded by stating that in an intermediate time frame, things looked shaky for markets. Still, I firmly believed that the S&P 500 was undergoing a correction and that the uptrend would resume in due course. Indeed, since October 31, the S&P 500 is up more than 8 percent and the Nasdaq is up more than 10 percent.

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Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Soon?

November 30, 2023

Interest rates are back in the news again, along with a feverish dissection of the latest meeting notes and comments from the Fed. Will the Fed cut rates or not? When? How much? Surely, the Fed has to. That means markets are going up! And so they rise.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sales Slow in October

November 27, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Fed Minutes, Consumer Sentiment

November 24, 2023

Here's a quick update for this holiday-shortened week! From my perspective, two things mattered this week:

  1. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes
  2. The latest consumer sentiment reading
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Thanksgiving Food for Thought: The Parable of the Turkey

November 22, 2023

Once upon a time, a turkey hatched in the dead of winter. He lived in a nice warm coop, had plentiful corn and seeds to eat, and spent much of his poult-hood playing with all of the other little turkeys.

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Q3 2023 Earnings: A Little Taste of Everything This Thanksgiving

November 21, 2023

Everyone has their Thanksgiving favorites, whether that’s the turkey, the mashed potatoes, the stuffing, or the gravy. For me, it’s the pie—blueberry with my mom’s homemade whipped cream.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Moderates in October

November 20, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Progress on Inflation, Markets Bounce

November 17, 2023

This was a week of good news pretty much across the board, which doesn't happen all that often. Congress managed to kick the can down the road again on spending, avoiding a governmental shutdown. Inflation was down across the board. And with both those risks subsiding, interest rates dropped—pushing markets higher. We continue to close in on a soft landing for the economy, and markets keep reacting to that.

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The Federal Deficit and Debt: A Painful Problem to Solve

November 16, 2023

Today, I want to discuss a topic that has somewhat fallen off the radar: the federal deficit and debt burden. It has been off the radar screen for a decade, since the last debt panic. The reason for that is that the panic led to real reforms that largely solved the problem. That episode—the fiscal cliff and the sequester—has a lot to tell us about today’s situation. Let's take a closer look.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2023 [SlideShare]

November 15, 2023

Equity markets continued to drop in October, with all three major U.S. indices down for the third consecutive month. The S&P 500 lost 2.10 percent during the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.26 percent in October. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest declines, with the technology-heavy index dropping 2.76 percent for the month. Rising long-term rates weighed on valuations, leading to negative returns for stocks.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Sours in November

November 13, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Economy and Markets Remain Resilient

November 10, 2023

It’s been a quiet week, so this will be a short post. You’re welcome.

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What Would Happen if the Fed Issued a Digital Dollar?

November 9, 2023

It’s time to go to the mailbox again for questions about a central bank digital currency—a digital dollar issued by the Fed here in the U.S. This is a bit of an obscure topic, but it seems to be getting traction as something to worry about. So, let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2023 [SlideShare]

November 8, 2023

The October reports showed continued economic growth with signs of potential slowing ahead. Hiring remained positive, as 150,000 jobs were added during the month. That said, the yield curve remained in red territory, and service sector and consumer confidence fell in October. This result could signal slower spending growth toward the end of the year. 

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Looking Back at the Markets in October and Ahead to November 2023

November 7, 2023

Stock markets dropped for the third consecutive month in October, with financial markets getting hit by higher interest rates across the board. The U.S. indices were down in the low-single digits for the month, which left the Dow and the S&P 500 below their long-term trend lines. International markets also pulled back by roughly the same amount. Even fixed income was down. Financial markets were clearly in a risk-off mode.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in October

November 6, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Economy Slows, Markets Cheer

November 3, 2023

This was the week that the economy showed real signs of slowing down—and markets cheered! All right, it wasn’t quite that simple. But that captures pretty much what happened, so let’s look at the details.

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Digesting the Fed

November 2, 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the second consecutive meeting. This leaves its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. After a historic run where the committee increased that range by 5.25 percent over the course of 11 meetings, no change can certainly feel like a change. So, what are the driving forces behind the continued pause? Let’s look at some of the details the FOMC is keeping its eyes on, as well as what we should be paying attention to moving forward.

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Market Thoughts for November 2023 [Video]

November 2, 2023

U.S. indices were down for the third consecutive month, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets also pulled back, and fixed income was down. Despite the market performance, job growth remained healthy, consumer income and spending grew, and retail sales increased.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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