In the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (October 2024), managers were asked what they considered the biggest “tail risk.” Their answer: geopolitical conflict. So, if you’ve been thinking about geopolitical risks and their potential effect on portfolios, you are certainly not alone.

“The wind is rising, and the air is wild with leaves. We have had our summer evenings; now for October eves!”
— Humbert Wolfe

Stocks continued their rally in September, with all three major U.S. indices up for the month and quarter. The S&P 500 gained 2.14 percent in September and 5.89 percent for the quarter, while the Dow was up 1.96 percent during the month and 8.72 percent for the quarter. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2.76 percent for the month and quarter. Improving fundamentals and solid earnings growth supported these results.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Anyone past a certain age knows how much easier it was to do things when they were younger. You could stay up all night to finish a project, play a pickup basketball game without stretching, and eat or drink whatever you wanted without many consequences. As we get older, though, we start to see the effects of our poor decisions but also gain the experience that can help guide us.

The September economic reports showed signs of continued strength to end the quarter. Hiring picked up during the month, with additions to nonfarm payrolls surpassing expectations and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1 percent. Service sector and consumer confidence showed mixed signals and have remained volatile over recent months. Finally, the yield curve inversion narrowed modestly, with both long- and short-term yields falling during the month.    

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.

September was a solid month for investors, as falling interest rates supported healthy market returns. The S&P 500 and Dow set new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq got close. Still, risks remain. In the U.S., the primary concern is slower growth, as shown by cracks in the labor market. While the Fed’s attempts to support the economy by cutting rates are helpful, a further hiring slowdown could spook investors. Political risks are also rising with the upcoming elections.