The Independent Market Observer

Will We See a Supply Glut in 2022?

January 14, 2022

The year 2021 was all about supply shortages—from semiconductor chips to construction materials and everything in between. As supply chain logjams ease in 2022, some goods will get back to a normal balance. Others may swing to an oversupply. Sectors and industries that benefit from economic activity in which supply rises to meet demand may continue to reward investors in the near term. The business cycles for some companies may be at or near peak, however, so investors must watch for potential signs of a downturn. 

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A Preview of Q4 2021 Earnings

January 13, 2022

We are just starting earnings season, when companies will be reporting how much money they made in the fourth quarter of last year. This is always an important time, as stock values depend crucially on how much money companies make. But this season will be especially important.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2022

January 12, 2022

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2022

January 11, 2022

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Monday Update: December Job Growth Comes In Below Expectations

January 10, 2022

We received a number of important economic data releases last week, with a focus on business confidence, the international trade report, and the December jobs report. Fewer jobs than expected were added in December, although improvements to the household survey and participation rate caused the unemployment rate to fall notably to end the year. This week will be packed with updates, with reports to come on December inflation, retail sales, and industrial production, as well as consumer sentiment to start January.

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Looking Under the Hood of the Latest Jobs Report

January 7, 2022

This morning’s jobs report came out, and we have all seen the data. Job growth is down, but the unemployment rate is also down. Hiring is weak, but more people have jobs. This makes perfect sense, not. What’s going on here?

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What's Ahead for the Markets and Economy in 2022?

January 6, 2022

After yesterday's monthly looking back/looking ahead post, I had a request to do the same thing for 2021 and 2022. While I haven’t taken this approach in the past, it seemed like a good idea to bring this format to the 2022 outlook in the context of 2021. So, let’s take a closer look.

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Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2022

January 5, 2022

December was a solid month for both the economy and the markets but a difficult month for medical news. The Omicron wave of the COVID-19 virus drove new case counts to all-time highs at year-end. Job growth kept improving, however, and consumer confidence and spending also continued to grow. Business confidence and investment remained strong, and the markets reacted to the positive news. The economic news continued to be strong through year-end, although we should note it was based on backward-looking data. The outlook for January is more mixed. The Omicron wave is likely to start showing up in the economic data. It’s quite possible it will also influence the markets.

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Market Thoughts for January 2022 [Video]

January 4, 2022

The year closed on a strong note, with the Dow and S&P showing gains. The Nasdaq struggled a bit, but it ended December in the green. On the medical front, the omicron variant drove COVID cases to new highs. Still, the economic data kept getting better. Consumer confidence numbers bounced back, and consumer spending kept growing. Further, business confidence and investment remain very high.

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Monday Update: Busy Week of Updates Ahead

January 3, 2022

There were no major economic data releases last week. This week, however, we’ll see a number of important updates to start the new year. The focus will be on business confidence, the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, the international trade report, and the December employment report.

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