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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
Reports for the Week of March 4
ISM Services, February (Tuesday)
- Expected/Prior ISM Services index: 53.0/53.4
- Actual ISM Services index: 52.6
Service sector confidence fell more than expected in February, partly due to a slowdown in service sector employment. Despite the decline, the index remained in expansionary territory.
Trade balance, January (Thursday)
- Expected/prior trade deficit: –$63.5 billion/–$64.2 billion
- Actual trade deficit: –$67.4 billion
The trade deficit increased more than expected in January due to a 1.1 percent rise in imports that overwhelmed a 0.1 percent rise in exports.
Employment report, February (Friday)
- Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +200,000/+229,000
- Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +275,000
Hiring accelerated in February, with 275,000 new jobs added during the month following a downwardly revised 229,000 jobs in January. While headline job growth remained strong in February, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent. There were notable downward revisions to the December and January reports.
Upcoming Reports for the Week of March 11
Consumer Price Index, February (Tuesday)
Headline consumer inflation is expected to rise in February, with economists calling for a 0.4 percent rise in consumer prices during the month following a 0.3 percent increase in January.
Retail sales, February (Thursday)
Retail sales are expected to rebound in February after falling more than expected in January. Headline and core sales are set to rise during the month.
Producer Price Index, February (Thursday)
Producer inflation is expected to increase 0.3 percent on a headline basis in February, following a 0.3 percent rise in January. Core producer prices, which strip out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, are set to show a more modest 0.2 percent gain.
Industrial production, February (Friday)
Industrial production is expected to stand flat in February following a weather-induced slowdown in January.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, March, preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment is expected to increase modestly in March after falling more than expected in February.
