With all the initial panic over the Brexit vote—and the subsequent relief as markets recovered—it’s been easy to lose sight of the bigger-picture lessons. Here are three that we should keep in mind.

Pretty much all of the coverage of the Brexit vote has been negative, and deservedly so. Even the positive spins have largely focused on how to either reverse the vote or minimize the damage.

When there's this much consensus on something, it’s usually time to take a close look at the other side. So let’s see if we can make a strong case that Brexit is a good thing.

Will the Brexit vote lead to another 2008, as many advisors and investors are wondering, or have we already weathered much of the storm, at least here in the U.S.? I talked about the economic fallout yesterday on Bloomberg TV’s Bloomberg Markets with program anchors David Gura, Vonnie Quinn, and Matt Miller. 

After a difficult two days, there’s a serious question on many investors’ minds: Is this the big one, the next crash? It's a reasonable concern. After all, haven’t we been hearing about all the damage Brexit could do? And haven’t we sort of been down this road before, with the Greek crisis in 2011?

Last week's economic news fell below expectations across the board. Although housing markets continued to grow, there are potential signs of slowing, and business spending continues to be weak. Of course, the big news of the week—Britain’s decision to leave the EU—will probably exacerbate that weakness, even if it is unlikely to drive the U.S. into a recession.

I woke up early this morning to check the results of the British referendum on leaving the European Union. Against expectations, the Leave vote won a convincing victory, defying the polls and the prediction markets.

There’s no doubt the world has changed, significantly. There is considerable doubt about what that actually means and—more immediately—what to do about it.

As an analyst and economist, I spend most of my professional life being wrong, as does everyone else in my field. No one actually expects economic projections to come true consistently; no one has the ability to predict what the market will do.

As we watch how the British referendum plays out tomorrow, we need to keep something in mind: It’s almost never the bus you are watching that hits you.

With the British referendum on leaving the European Union—the “Brexit” vote—just two days away, worries are starting to rise again. As I wrote recently, I suspect that the Remain side will win. And even if the Leave camp prevails, the actual impact may be much less severe than many are now predicting. 

Spanning the whole economy, last week’s reports were positive overall but mostly more of the same. Manufacturing continues to slog along with no indications of recovery, despite the first signs of stabilization in the oil-drilling sector. Retail sales, on the other hand, show the consumer driving even faster economic growth.

The rise of automated financial advice—essentially, computer programs that rebalance your accounts—has been a hot topic in the investment industry. Blockchain technology, which could automate many functions now handled by securities exchanges, is another one. Just this morning, a colleague sent me an article about a start-up that looks to make transferring money essentially free, undercutting PayPal, which is already undercutting banks.

Yesterday, we talked about what the stock market is really saying. Briefly, despite all of the bad news out there, the stock market has not collapsed and the world is not coming to an end, at least in the short term. This, of course, is good news—but an absence of catastrophe doesn’t mean things will be good, either.

After a couple of posts on risky business (the Brexit vote and negative rates), let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s easy to get caught up in individual stories, but we need to understand how they fit together—and what the market is saying about it all.

The big news today in the financial world is that, for the first time on record, the yield on the German 10-year government bond dropped below zero. This is just the latest step in the ongoing decline in interest rates. In fact, the Japanese 15-year government bond recently went negative as well.

The only major report last week was Friday’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. It remained essentially stable, with a small decline from 94.7 to 94.3.

On June 23, Britain will vote on whether or not to leave the European Union, popularly known as Brexit (British exit). As the date approaches, concerns have been rising that the referendum might actually pass. What would it mean if it did?

Over the last several posts, we’ve taken an in-depth look at bear markets—the factors that cause them, the events that indicate immediate risk is rising, and the time frames over which these events can develop. At the moment, the pieces don’t seem to be in place for a bear market, but the risk level does remain high.

This will be the penultimate post in our series on how to spot pending bear markets.

Although expensive valuations are a noted risk factor in past bear markets, they don’t give us much to go on timing-wise, as markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years.

Last week, we talked about several major warning signs for a bear market: recessions, commodity price spikes, rapid rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and high market valuations. In Friday’s Economic Risk Factor Update, we looked at the probability of a recession in the near future and concluded that it was unlikely.

Today, we’ll consider the next two risk factors: oil price spikes and Fed rate increases.

Last week’s data was more mixed than in recent weeks, with a very weak employment report and worse-than-expected results in the service sector offsetting continued positive news on manufacturing and consumer income and spending.

In yesterday’s post, we concluded that a recession is the biggest and most consequential indicator of a bear market. The next obvious question is, how can we spot a recession coming?

After an early pullback, improving economic news helped fuel a rally in U.S. indices at the end of May. While manufacturing remains a concern, improvements in consumer spending and housing have boosted confidence, prompting the Fed to suggest that the economy has normalized. Internationally, political risks continue to be a factor. And any bad news could well rattle the markets. What can we expect moving forward?

Yesterday we discussed what not to worry about, so today let’s take a look at what we, as investors, should be worrying about. In short, that would be a long-lived, substantial decline in the stock market—otherwise known as a bear market.

I’ve been giving a presentation recently, developed during the worst of the first-quarter stock market pullback, that discusses what we, as investors, should worry about and why. It may seem obvious, but in fact, most people tend to focus on the wrong things.