Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Slows in June

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 8

Consumer Price Index, June (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.1%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.3%/+3.4%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.4%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+3.3%

Consumer inflation slowed on a monthly and year-over-year basis in June. On a year-over-year basis, core consumer inflation fell to its lowest level in more than three years, while headline price growth matched a three-year low.

Producer Price Index, June (Friday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.4%/+2.6%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.3%/+2.5%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.6%/+3.0%

Producer prices increased more than expected in June, with headline and core price growth coming in above economist estimates during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, July, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 68.5/68.2
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 66

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to start July, with worsening consumer views on current economic conditions and future expectations weighing on sentiment.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 15

Retail sales, June (Tuesday)
Retail sales are expected to fall in June after increasing modestly in May.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, July (Tuesday)
Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in July after falling more than expected in June.

Housing starts and building permits, June (Wednesday)
Housing starts are expected to rise in June, while permits are set to fall modestly.

Industrial production, June (Wednesday)
Economists expect to see a solid increase in industrial production in June, partly driven by rising capacity utilization.