The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sales Slow in March

April 24, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Will the Debt Ceiling Debate End in Default?

April 21, 2023

Recently, we have talked about a bunch of headline issues that are not real problems. Today, I want to discuss something that could be a real problem: the pending debt ceiling confrontation. This issue is one we need to understand and pay attention to. But as we will see, once again, it is also likely that the outcomes won’t be nearly as bad as the headlines suggest. It is something to watch but not something to panic about. 

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Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2023 [SlideShare]

April 19, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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All Eyes on Earnings Season: What to Expect for Q1 2023

April 18, 2023

We are at the start of the period when companies release their results for the first quarter of 2023, known as earnings season. With everything going on—inflation, rate hikes, a labor shortage, the weakness of the dollar, a pending recession, the list goes on and on—the results are unusually uncertain this time around. Analysts are struggling to figure out exactly what all this means. 

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in March

April 17, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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The Dollar, Digital Currency, and the Fed: Look Beyond the Headlines

April 13, 2023

Following up on Tuesday’s discussion of why the dollar isn’t collapsing and will not do so, let’s take a look at some of the other panic memes showing up in our news feeds. This will be a range of quick hits, as there are a bunch to cover.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2023 [SlideShare]

April 12, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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The Case Against the Collapse of the Dollar

April 11, 2023

I have been getting a lot of questions around the dollar in recent weeks. De-dollarization seems to be a thing, as do central bank digital currencies, along with the latest round of worries about what the government is going to do to our savings. There is much to talk about, but the root of most of these questions is this: the notion that sometime soon the value of the dollar will collapse, making our savings valueless.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Business Confidence Slips in March

April 10, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Strong Jobs Report Could Spell Trouble for Markets

April 6, 2023

There is a lot riding on the monthly jobs report, which comes out tomorrow. For the economy, more jobs are good: more workers, more wage income, more spending ability, and so forth. There’s no real downside. For financial markets, however, a strong report would be problematic. Those workers—earning and spending their wages—add to demand, which adds to inflation. So, a strong report would be bad news for the Fed, for interest rates, and for markets. This is the problem we face tomorrow.

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Looking Back at the Markets in Q1 and Ahead to Q2 2023

April 5, 2023

After a weak February, markets rallied in March. U.S. markets were up by low single digits, while bond markets were in the same range. International markets also showed modest gains, with developed markets about the same as the U.S. and emerging markets doing slightly better. For the quarter as a whole, the Nasdaq did best and moved into a bull market by some measures, followed by developed international markets and the S&P 500. This was a stronger start to 2023 than most had expected, and it may signal how the rest of the year will play out.

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Market Thoughts for April 2023 [Video]

April 4, 2023

U.S. markets were up by low single digits in March. For the quarter, the Nasdaq performed best, followed by international developed markets and the S&P 500. The primary driver was the progress on inflation, which is well below where it started the year. Still, fears of a broader banking crisis rattled markets after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Federal action resolved the immediate concern, but weak balance sheets could signal tighter financial conditions ahead.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Spending Rises in February

April 3, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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