Appearance on Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas, November 13, 2018 [Video]

November 14, 2018

We're seeing increased volatility in the market, but what's the outlook for 2019? I discussed this and more (my segment begins at 50:51) yesterday on Bloomberg TV's Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas

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The Now World

November 14, 2018

As we discussed yesterday, the world is always changing. But in the past couple of years, there has been a growing sense that the changes we’re seeing now go beyond what is normal. From an investment and economic perspective, it seems these changes might be getting systemic enough that, over the next decade or so, it really will be different this time. To understand what might happen next, though, it is important to understand where we are starting from—as the next world will inevitably evolve from the now world.

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Moving from the New World to the Next World

November 13, 2018

Now that I am back from the Commonwealth National Conference, I want to spend the next week or so outlining the ideas behind my speech there. The genesis of my presentation was the hundreds of conversations I had with financial advisors and clients over the preceding months. All had different questions and concerns—ranging from whether the U.S. was inevitably declining to whether the U.S. was the only safe place to invest. But over time, a common core concern emerged: the sense that somehow things were changing, as well as the growing worry that the answers we have relied on no longer fit in the new world we are moving into.

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Monday Update: Producer Prices Up on Rising Energy Costs

November 12, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with looks at business prices and confidence, as well as consumer confidence. This week’s data starts with prices and whether inflation is picking up.

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What Did the Midterm Elections Mean for the Market?

November 9, 2018

This week, the big news was the Democrats’ takeover of the House of Representatives and the subsequent large bounce back in the stock market. Put together, it sounds like I am implying a causal connection. I suppose I am—but not the obvious one.

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A Look Back at the Markets in October and Ahead to November 2018

November 8, 2018

I think we are all glad October is over. U.S. markets were down between 5 percent and 10 percent at the end of the month, even after a partial recovery, and international markets were down 8 percent to 9 percent. A sudden drop in confidence, especially in the big tech stocks, also rocked markets in a way we have not seen in some time. Indeed, October lived up to its scary reputation. But what does this mean for November?

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2018

November 7, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2018

November 6, 2018

The good news is that confidence remained strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in September to a 21-year high and, despite a small pullback, remains very close to that level. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. Even better, job growth rebounded significantly after a weak month. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

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Monday Update: Strong Bounce Back for Hiring

November 5, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with looks at consumer income, spending, and confidence, as well as manufacturing industry sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market. The week ahead, on the other hand, will be a relatively slow one for economic news.

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Market Thoughts for November 2018 [Video]

November 2, 2018

October lived up to its scary reputation, with both U.S. and international markets down. Plus, housing started to roll over, and retail sales disappointed once again. That’s not to mention the political risks. In the U.S., the midterm elections have increased uncertainty. In Europe, there are concerns over Brexit and political turmoil in Germany.

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Headed to Commonwealth’s National Conference!

November 1, 2018

Next week is Commonwealth’s National Conference—an annual event where as many Commonwealth advisors as can make it gather together to learn, to network, and, most important, to have a good time together. This year, we are down in Austin again, a wonderful town. I am very much looking forward to it!

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Appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, November 1, 2018 [Video]

November 1, 2018

How will the markets perform in 2019, especially if rates continue to rise? I discussed this and more earlier today on CNBC's Squawk Box.

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