The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Existing Home Sales Increase in July

August 26, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2024 [SlideShare]

August 21, 2024

July was a mixed month for markets, with two of the three major U.S. equity indices up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 1.22 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 4.51 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.73 percent. These mixed results came in despite supportive fundamentals, with earnings growth beating analyst expectations.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in July

August 19, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Market Volatility: Is the Dust Settling or Blowing in the Wind?

August 16, 2024

“Do you believe in miracles? Yes!”

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2024 [SlideShare]

August 15, 2024

The July reports indicated slowing economic growth during the month. Hiring slowed notably, which could signal potential weakness for the labor market. Service sector and consumer confidence both improved in July, and the yield curve inversion widened modestly due to falling long-term interest rates.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Service Sector Confidence Improves in July

August 12, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Looking Back at the Markets in July and Ahead to August 2024

August 6, 2024

July was a mixed month for markets, as investors rotated away from larger technology companies and took a more diversified approach during the month. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both posted positive returns in July, but the Nasdaq Composite declined modestly. International markets were up for the month, while falling interest rates led to positive returns for bonds.

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Stock Market Sell-Off: What to Expect Next

August 5, 2024

It has been quite a couple of days in the financial markets. Today marks the latest in a sharp drawdown around the world. Japan has been hit particularly hard, but the pullback is global. Here in the U.S., for example, the S&P 500 is down about 3 percent for the day (as of this writing) and just shy of 8 percent off its all-time highs. The Nasdaq is doing even worse, down almost 4 percent for the day and 14 percent off its all-time highs.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Job Growth Slows as Unemployment Rises

August 5, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Market Thoughts for August 2024 [Video]

August 2, 2024

July was a mixed month for markets, as investors rotated away from tech companies in favor of a more diversified approach. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had a weak month, the S&P 500 ended up a bit, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average did best of all, up by almost 5 percent. On the economic front, we are still in a relatively familiar place as we head into August. Despite some slowing, the economy is healthy and inflation is down.

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Digesting the Fed: Will Rates Fall This Fall?

August 1, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the eighth consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This decision came as no surprise, with the futures markets pricing in a near-zero percent chance of a rate cut leading up to the meeting.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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