The Independent Market Observer

What Mattered This Week? The Real Economy

September 29, 2023

Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown. Indeed, worries about a recession rose on those two risks. And while interest rates ticked up a bit, it was much less than last week and generally within a range. The same applies to financial markets as well.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Considering the Consequences of a Government Shutdown

September 28, 2023

We are getting close to the decision point on whether large parts of the government will shut down again because Congress has not passed a budget. While the Senate has come up with a plan, the House has not even been able to start considering one, which means the government will lack funding and will largely shut down, as of October 1. Given the dysfunction in Washington DC, at this point that shutdown looks likely, which means we must think through the consequences.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sales Slump in August

September 25, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Mattered This Week? All About Interest Rates

September 22, 2023

This week was all about interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to the highest level since 2007, topping 4.5 percent after running up from about 4.1 percent at the start of the month. That is a big jump, driven by a growing market realization that the Fed is serious about keeping rates higher for longer.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Accelerates in August

September 18, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Mattered This Week? Inflation, UAW Strike, and Consumers

September 15, 2023

I thought this was going to be an easy week. Clearly, we would be talking about inflation, right? And we will, but we also should discuss the UAW strike and consumer confidence. So, let’s get right to it.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2023 [SlideShare]

September 13, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Release Snapshot: Service Sector Confidence Improves in August

September 11, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Mattered This Week? Economic News on the Upswing

September 8, 2023

What mattered this week? Well, on top of it being a short week, there simply wasn’t much happening. The one piece of economic data that mattered, the ISM Services survey, surprised to the upside. This result indicated that service businesses, on the whole, are not only still in expansion mode but are even feeling better. That is good news from an economic perspective and, on top of the last jobs report, signals that the economy continues to grow.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Looking Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September 2023

September 7, 2023

August saw modest market pullbacks across the board, as investors were nervous about risk. The U.S. indices were down by low single digits, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets also pulled back—developed markets were down slightly more than U.S. markets, and emerging markets performed worst of all. Even fixed income declined, as higher interest rates drove the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index down slightly. Financial markets spent the month in a risk-off mode, hurting riskier investments like tech stocks and emerging markets at the expense of more boring ones.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2023 [SlideShare]

September 6, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Market Thoughts for September 2023 [Video]

September 5, 2023

U.S. indices were down by low single digits in August, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets pulled back, and fixed income was down. This market performance reflected the underlying economy. Business and consumer confidence slowed, while inflation showed signs of ticking up again.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in August

September 5, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Mattered This Week? Fed Is Likely Done with Rate Hikes

September 1, 2023

With the end of summer drawing near, it has been a busy couple of weeks. We had the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole and a whole bunch of economic data, including a new inflation release and the jobs report this morning. When we last talked, the markets were selling off. So, let’s look at where we are now and what mattered in the past couple of weeks.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®