The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Heats Up

March 25, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Digesting the Fed: Markets and the Fed Seeing Eye to Eye (For Now)

March 21, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, leaving its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This came as no surprise, with futures markets indicating a near-zero percent chance of a rate cut in the days and weeks leading up to the decision.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]

March 20, 2024

Equity markets continued to rally in February, as all three major U.S. indices were up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 5.34 percent in February, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.50 percent. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, as the technology-heavy index gained 6.22 percent during the month. Technology stocks rallied notably due to increased investor optimism surrounding the potential for artificial intelligence.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Accelerates in February

March 18, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What’s Worrying Investors?

March 14, 2024

Every year or two, a new round of worries crops up. Some of them are real—the war in Ukraine, inflation, politics—but a surprising number are not. The challenge, of course, is telling which is which. 

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Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]

March 13, 2024

February’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth. Hiring accelerated, with a strong 275,000 jobs added during the month. That said, service sector and consumer confidence fell modestly.

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Q4 2023 Earnings: The Winter Thaw Has Begun

March 12, 2024

I love spending time outdoors—except when it’s 20 degrees outside. For me, winter in Boston is a time to focus on self-improvement, whether that’s working on fitness goals or taking a class, so I can enjoy the warm weather when it finally arrives. Still, the winter can seem very long, as did 2022 and 2023 for many businesses. Companies saw margins contract, sought to lower their debt loads as rates rose, and made efforts to right-size their businesses for what seemed like an oncoming recession.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in February

March 11, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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International Women’s Day: Investing in Women

March 8, 2024

Since the 1980s, we have celebrated and honored female trailblazers, who have shaped our history and advocated for change, during Women’s History Month. Today, March 8, is no exception, as we celebrate International Women’s Day by recognizing women’s global achievements and contributions to history, culture, and society. International Women’s Day also serves as a powerful reminder of the ongoing struggles women face in the modern workplace, including gender equality, pay equity, and the lack of visibility of women in leadership positions.

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Looking Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2024

March 5, 2024

February was a good month for stocks, with most markets up in the low- to mid-single digits on positive economic and earnings news. The riskiest indices, the Nasdaq and emerging markets, performed especially well as investors stayed risk-on. Fixed income, on the other hand, generally declined as interest rates rose significantly during the month on fading hopes for Fed rate cuts. These results reflected the broader economy in different ways. But, where growth continues, so does inflation.

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Market Thoughts for March 2024 [Video]

March 4, 2024

Stocks performed well in February, with most markets up in the low- to mid-single digits. The Nasdaq and emerging markets did especially well, but fixed income declined as interest rates rose. Job, income, and spending growth remained positive, but these results kept inflation up.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Grow in January

March 4, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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A Start to Remember for the Markets

March 1, 2024

In my last blog, I talked about how strong Januarys historically tend to lead to strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. But I also noted there could be a bit of volatility in February. To my surprise, this turned out to be one of the better Februarys the S&P 500 has ever had, finishing the month up 5.17 percent.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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