The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for September 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:19:30 GMT

Despite ongoing concerns about Middle East tensions and U.S. government debt levels, stocks rallied across the board in August. The Nasdaq was the best-performing U.S. index, followed closely by the S&P 500. Second-quarter corporate earnings significantly outperformed expectations, reflecting widespread economic strength. Although the July employment data was disappointing, inflation showed signs of easing, providing some reassurance to markets. Looking ahead, investors face risks from higher energy costs, rising long-term interest rates, and election-related uncertainty.

The Market Observatory: Weak Jobs Report Clouds Fed Rate Path [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 15:14:09 GMT

With a weak jobs report and inflation running hot, many investors are wondering what the Fed will do next. In this month's edition of the Market Observatory, Sam and I dive into the details of the latest data and what it could mean for the central bank in the months ahead.

Market Thoughts for August 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 18:29:19 GMT

Although underlying trends remained positive, higher oil prices continued to weigh on markets in July. The Nasdaq was the worst-performing U.S. index, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat for the month. Turning to the economy, the data was mixed, but strength in consumer spending and non-residential fixed investment is an encouraging sign that the economy is poised to continue growing in the second half of the year.

2026 Midyear Outlook: What’s Next for Markets?

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 17:56:35 GMT

The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off. But investors also focused on the Supreme Court’s decision that the mechanism by which the Trump administration implemented last year’s tariffs was illegal, increased scrutiny on AI infrastructure spending and the ability to earn a return on it, and a transition of Fed leadership from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh.

LPL Financial 2026 Midyear Outlook: The Market Observatory [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:13:13 GMT

Midterm elections. A change of leadership at the Fed. The shifting AI theme. There's a lot for investors to think about as we move into the second half of the year. To help navigate the path ahead for markets and the economy, Sam and I welcomed a special guest to this month's Market Observatory, Marc Zabicki, LPL's chief investment officer.

Market Thoughts for July 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 15:38:57 GMT

June was a mixed month for markets, as equities were dragged down by the Magnificent Seven stocks, which all closed lower on the month. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 both rallied, and the market benefited from the increasing earnings expectations for corporate America. Further, the May jobs data came in well above economist expectations, and retail sales continue to show consumers are willing to spend. But will inflation remain a fly in the ointment?

The Market Observatory: Will the World Cup Be a Win for the U.S. Economy? [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:06:06 GMT

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is in full swing. It will include 104 games played in 16 stadiums, 11 of which are in major U.S. cities. But here's the big question for investors: Will the World Cup be a win for the U.S. economy?

Market Thoughts for June 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 20:32:46 GMT

May was a strong month for equities, despite geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Major indices reached record highs, supported by robust corporate earnings that were significantly beyond expectations. Gains broadened beyond large tech firms, signaling healthier market participation. While bonds experienced mid-month volatility due to inflation fears, they recovered as geopolitical tensions eased. Economic data showed mixed but generally positive trends, including steady job growth and resilient consumer spending.

The Market Observatory: Earnings Strength Vs. Inflation Risk [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 13 May 2026 18:46:15 GMT

Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, stock markets have reached all-time highs. It seems investors have been able to look past the short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals. But are there other risks on the horizon?

Market Thoughts for May 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 04 May 2026 19:42:56 GMT

In April, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged, driven by earnings growth and a risk-on sentiment for investors. Further, the economic updates released during the month were largely positive. The initial estimate of Q1 GDP growth came in at 2 percent annualized, up from 0.5 percent at the end of last year. The economy also added a solid 178,000 jobs in March, the strongest month of hiring in over a year. On the consumer front, we saw signs of stabilizing sentiment and solid spending growth.