The Independent Market Observer

The Market Observatory: Earnings Strength Vs. Inflation Risk [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 13 May 2026 18:46:15 GMT

Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, stock markets have reached all-time highs. It seems investors have been able to look past the short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals. But are there other risks on the horizon?

Market Thoughts for May 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 04 May 2026 19:42:56 GMT

In April, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged, driven by earnings growth and a risk-on sentiment for investors. Further, the economic updates released during the month were largely positive. The initial estimate of Q1 GDP growth came in at 2 percent annualized, up from 0.5 percent at the end of last year. The economy also added a solid 178,000 jobs in March, the strongest month of hiring in over a year. On the consumer front, we saw signs of stabilizing sentiment and solid spending growth.

Why Do Stocks Keep Moving Higher?

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:59:09 GMT

Stocks have been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the past two months. If your nature is to tune out the noise and check in occasionally, you might have missed it. After a 9 percent sell-off earlier in the year, markets quickly rebounded and have recently traded at all-time highs.

The Market Observatory: Middle East Conflict and the Markets [Audio]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:22:52 GMT

As we enter the second month of the conflict in the Middle East, what impacts are we seeing on the markets and economy? In this month's episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I look beyond the headlines and focus on the fundamentals. From corporate earnings to rising inflation to recent jobs data, a balance of headwinds and tailwinds has started to emerge for investors.

Market Thoughts for April 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 21:06:34 GMT

March was a challenging month for stocks, as markets pulled back due to rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all fell by around 5 percent. International markets fared worse, closing down over 10 percent in March. Bonds were also down, due to rising interest rates.

The Market Observatory: Surging Oil Prices Stoke Inflation Worries [Audio]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 18:21:07 GMT

In this week's Market Observatory, Sam and I break down the challenging landscape the Fed must navigate in the weeks and months ahead, including surging oil prices, inflation worries, and weakness on the jobs front. What will it all mean for interest rates? Listen in to our latest episode for more:

Surging Oil Prices Threaten Market Consensus Views

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 16:47:04 GMT

Ongoing military actions in the Middle East have increased investor uncertainty. Of course, geopolitical risk has always existed, and this time is no different. But the impact of events like these on U.S. investors will vary depending on the lasting effects on fundamental drivers of returns, such as job creation, inflation, economic growth, and corporate earnings.

Market Thoughts for March 2026 [Video]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:57:08 GMT

February was a volatile month for stocks, with investor concerns around AI, tariffs, and trade policy. The Dow Jones was the best-performing of the large-cap U.S. markets, while international stocks were the best-performing part of the global market. On the economic side, the picture was mixed. Corporate fundamentals remain solid, but fourth-quarter real GDP slowed from the strong second- and third-quarter reports. Consumer confidence showed a slight improvement in February, while the January employment report was better than expected.

What the Supreme Court’s Tariff Decision Means for Markets and Trade

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:13:18 GMT

On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs the Trump administration had imposed over the past year. The question before the court was not whether the tariffs themselves were illegal, but whether the mechanism by which they were enacted was legal. By a 6-3 vote, the Justices determined that the implementation of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) went beyond the authority granted. The IEEPA allows a president to act in times of genuine national emergencies rather than to take broad trade policy actions. For example, it was enacted during the post-9/11 war on global terrorism and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Market Observatory: Shifting Risks, Solid Fundamentals [Audio]

imoblog@commonwealth.com (Chris Fasciano) — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 18:35:44 GMT

The early months of 2026 have proven interesting for investors, with no shortage of news affecting the markets. In this month's episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I break down an investing landscape marked by shifting risks and solid fundamentals, plus what it all means for the path ahead.