The Independent Market Observer

2025 Midyear Outlook: For Fixed Income, Slow and Steady Wins the Race

June 20, 2025

Bonds had a solid start to 2025, with most high-quality fixed income sectors up low- to mid-single digits through the first half of the year. While stocks experienced a roller-coaster ride powered by policy uncertainty, fixed income generally held up well despite the broader market turbulence. Will it be the same story in the second half? Let’s take a closer look.

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2025 Midyear Outlook: The Market Observatory [Video]

June 18, 2025

As we enter the second half of the year, what can investors expect for the economy and markets? That's the big question we set out to answer in this special Midyear Outlook edition of the Market Observatory. This month, Sam and I are excited to welcome Brad McMillan, chief investment officer, as our special guest.

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2025 Midyear Outlook: Big Expectations and Big Uncertainty for Equities

June 17, 2025

Equities have been on quite the roller coaster in 2025. Although the tariff situation has driven much of this volatility, we find ourselves in a similar spot to where we began the year. Valuations remain high, the market is still counting on the growth of the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), and analysts continue to expect above-average growth for the next several years, despite all the uncertainty.

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2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here

June 16, 2025

The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room. Then there is the budget bill, which includes tax and spending cuts. It’s also being negotiated at a time when concerns about the country’s deficit have grown, given Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating. Last but certainly not least, the Fed has yet to lower rates this year.

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Market Thoughts for June 2025 [Video]

June 3, 2025

Markets rallied in May, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq up low- to mid-single digits for the month on solid fundamentals and reduced policy worries. Further, the average earnings growth for the S&P 500 during the first quarter was 13.5 percent, more than twice the initial estimates. The economic updates were also broadly positive. The April job report revealed continued solid hiring, and inflation showed signs of improvement, as consumer prices rose by less than expected.

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February 19, 2025

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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