Over the past two weeks, markets have been down between 4 percent and 5 percent, and worries about the economy and inflation have been growing. As a result, I’ve been getting questions as to whether it is time to start worrying about the resumption of last year’s bear market. While the recent volatility may well continue, and there are indeed things to keep an eye on, I don’t think so. Here’s why.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

When you look at the news, there is a lot going on. Between politics and geopolitics, the macro environment is more unstable than usual. We see the same on the economic front, for both macro and micro reasons. Economic growth is down and up. Job growth is up—or is it? Consumer and business confidence are down—or are they? And, of course, inflation and long-term interest rates have been trending down—until recently, when they started trending up again.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” — Mark Twain (probably?)

The above quote is a wonderful self-referential example of itself. When I was thinking of it and looked it up, I was quite certain that it was from Mark Twain. But on review, that isn’t certain. So, let’s add this one to the list of things we need to be careful of.

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

For all the hype around today’s inflation data and what it might mean for markets and the economy, the truth is simply this: not much news here.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

After a tough December, the markets rallied in January. Fears about inflation faded, and hopes that the Fed would hike rates more slowly—or even start cutting them—dominated markets as signs of economic weakness appeared. But this bad economic news was good news, as long-term rates pulled back, supporting financial markets.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Let’s get the headline out of the way. The number of new jobs expected in January’s jobs report was around 188,000, down from the prior month’s 223,000. But the actual number came in at—wait for it—more than half a million (517,000 to be exact), which is more than double last month. This is an astonishing beat. And what is even more surprising is that the headline beat is only part of the story.

After a tough December, both U.S. and international markets showed gains in January. The primary drivers were the continued drop in inflation and the decline in longer-term interest rates. Despite the market gains, the economy showed signs of slowing, with consumer spending dropping for the second month in a row and a pullback in business confidence and investment.

As we wait for the jobs report on Friday, there is a lot of worry. Signs of a slowing economy are pointing toward a recession this year. Consumer spending dropped two straight months at the end of last year, and business confidence is down to recessionary territory. The Fed is still looking to substantially weaken the labor market, in search of lower inflation. All of the signs are that the jobs market will weaken significantly.