The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Slides in September

September 30, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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The Fed Goes Big: What’s Next for Asset Allocation?

September 25, 2024

“Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.”
— Dr. Seuss

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Economic Release Snapshot: Signs of Continued Economic Growth

September 23, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Digesting the Fed: Rates Start to Fall Before the Leaves

September 19, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted to cut rates by a half-percent, bringing its policy range to 4.75 percent to 5 percent. This decision comes after committee members had elected to hold rates steady at the preceding eight meetings after their hiking cycle concluded in July 2023. This vote also marks the first time in recent periods that a voting committee member dissented from the popular vote. We saw 11 committee members vote in favor of the action, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as the sole dissenter, preferring a quarter-percent cut.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2024 [SlideShare]

September 18, 2024

August was an encouraging month for stocks, as markets were able to end the month in positive territory despite an early-month sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the month at a record high, while the S&P 500 was close to its own record level. The Nasdaq Composite lagged its peers, but the technology-heavy index still managed to eke out a modest gain during the month.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in August

September 16, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2024 [SlideShare]

September 11, 2024

The economic reports showed signs of improvement in August. Hiring picked up, compared to a downwardly revised hiring report for July. Service sector and consumer confidence improved in August but remained volatile over recent months. The yield curve inversion remained relatively stable, with long- and short-term yields falling during the month.

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Q2 2024 Earnings Season Review: Beating Expectations Isn’t Enough

September 10, 2024

If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team. (As a Patriots fan, I remember that feeling.) Similarly, after the S&P 500 beat earnings estimates for several quarters, investors aren’t just hoping to beat earnings. They are looking for both a beat and better guidance going forward. Investors had to settle for just one of those in the second quarter.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Picks Up in August

September 9, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Looking Back at the Markets in August and Ahead to September 2024

September 5, 2024

August was an encouraging month for stocks, as markets were able to end the month in positive territory despite an early-month sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at a record high, while the S&P 500 was close to its own record level. The Nasdaq Composite lagged its peers, but the technology-heavy index still managed to eke out a modest gain during the month.

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Market Thoughts for September 2024 [Video]

September 4, 2024

August saw a shaky start with an initial sell-off, but it ended on a positive note as markets rallied. Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced it was time to start cutting rates, and stock and bond markets bounced on the news—with the Dow setting a new high and the S&P 500 getting close. The expected rate cuts are based on a slowing economy and the hope that inflation will keep trending downward. Beyond the economy, political risks are expected to rise as the elections get closer. 

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Improves in August

September 3, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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