Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Slows in April

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of May 13

Producer Price Index, April (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/–0.1%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.5%/+0.5%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.8%/+2.1%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.4%

Producer inflation came in above economist estimates during the month following a downwardly revised drop in producer prices in March.

Consumer Price Index, April (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.5%/+3.8%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.6%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.6%

Consumer inflation showed signs of softening in April, as headline and core consumer inflation fell modestly on a year-over-year basis during the month.

Retail sales, April (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.4%/+0.6%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.0%

Retail sales were unchanged in April, while core sales fell modestly during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, May (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 50/51
• Actual sentiment: 45

Home builder sentiment fell sharply in May, bringing the index into contractionary territory for the first time since February.

Housing starts and building permits, April (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: +7.6%/–16.8%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: +5.7%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +0.9%/–5.0%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –3.0%

Housing starts and building permits came in below estimates in April. The modest increase in housing starts during the month left the pace of construction well below recent highs.

Industrial production, April (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.1%/+0.1%
• Actual production change: +0.0%

Industrial production was flat during the month, which was slightly less than expected. Manufacturing production fell 0.3 percent in April.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of May 20

Existing home sales, April (Wednesday)
Existing home sales are set to fall modestly in April after dropping more than expected in March.

FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday)
The Fed’s May meeting minutes are expected to show further details on the central bank’s decision to slow the pace of balance sheet runoffs later in the year.

Durable goods orders, April, preliminary (Friday)
Durable goods orders are set to fall in April after rising more than expected in March.