Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 12, 2018 [Video]

December 12, 2018

What can we expect from the market in 2019? I discussed this and more on CNBC's Power Lunch today. 

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A Look Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2018

December 12, 2018

Both October and November were roller-coaster months. October took us down, and November took us further down only to bounce and finish slightly up. Now, as we move to the end of the year, we are seeing more downward movement, although there are signs that may be passing. As investors, we should probably be checking for whiplash, as this has been a wilder ride than we have seen in years.

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Are We Headed for a Deeper Market Decline?

December 11, 2018

We are now in the third month of the stock market decline, with the S&P 500 getting close to correction territory (i.e., down 10 percent from the peak). Although there have been three attempted rallies, in each case the market has declined again. From a technical perspective, important trend lines have been broken, which increases the risk that the decline could get worse. Is it time to worry?

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Monday Update: Confidence Remains High, Hiring Slows

December 10, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with several key reports. This week’s data starts with prices and whether they indicate that inflation is picking up.

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The Next World: Collateral Damage

December 7, 2018

We closed the last post in this series with the observation that, even if the U.S. “won” the trade war, there would be collateral damage—both here and throughout the world. That turned out to be a timely point, as we have seen in the financial markets over the past week.

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Why Aren’t Your Investments Doing Better?

December 6, 2018

As we approach year-end and you look at your investment statements, there is bound to be much discussion about how your investments performed. As has become usual in the past couple of years, there will be questions about and comparisons between what we expected and what we actually got. In other words, with the economy doing well, why aren’t your investments doing better?

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The Inverted Yield Curve: Sign of Trouble Ahead?

December 5, 2018

Yesterday’s market drop reversed all of Monday’s gain and then some, reportedly on growing doubts regarding the exact terms of the trade war truce announced by President Trump. That might be the case, but I suspect the headlines pointing out that part of the yield curve had inverted played a bigger role in the decline. This inversion is usually a sign of economic trouble, so it would make sense for the market to pull back. The problem is that, while technically true, the inversion we saw typically indicates that trouble will show up in a couple of years—if it does at all. If the market was reacting to the inversion, it was overreacting.

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Market Thoughts for December 2018 [Video]

December 4, 2018

November was a rocky month. Concerns surrounding the midterm elections, the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, and the economic slowdown resulted in market turbulence. Still, the financial markets bounced back. Here in the U.S., the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all had some gains. Abroad, the emerging markets rebounded strongly. Even bonds made money, despite interest rate turmoil.

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Monday Update: Housing Keeps Slowing, Income and Spending Solid

December 3, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, giving us a wide range of views on where the economy is going. This week will also be busy, with several key reports.

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