Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2018

December 13, 2018

The good news is that confidence continued to be strong last month. Business sentiment remains close to a 21-year high, and consumer confidence remains very close to an 18-year high. Although job growth declined, it was after a very strong month, and it remained at healthy levels. Longer-term interest rates, which had been a concern after a spike, also moderated. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 12, 2018 [Video]

December 12, 2018

What can we expect from the market in 2019? I discussed this and more on CNBC's Power Lunch today. 

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A Look Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2018

December 12, 2018

Both October and November were roller-coaster months. October took us down, and November took us further down only to bounce and finish slightly up. Now, as we move to the end of the year, we are seeing more downward movement, although there are signs that may be passing. As investors, we should probably be checking for whiplash, as this has been a wilder ride than we have seen in years.

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Are We Headed for a Deeper Market Decline?

December 11, 2018

We are now in the third month of the stock market decline, with the S&P 500 getting close to correction territory (i.e., down 10 percent from the peak). Although there have been three attempted rallies, in each case the market has declined again. From a technical perspective, important trend lines have been broken, which increases the risk that the decline could get worse. Is it time to worry?

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Monday Update: Confidence Remains High, Hiring Slows

December 10, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with several key reports. This week’s data starts with prices and whether they indicate that inflation is picking up.

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The Next World: Collateral Damage

December 7, 2018

We closed the last post in this series with the observation that, even if the U.S. “won” the trade war, there would be collateral damage—both here and throughout the world. That turned out to be a timely point, as we have seen in the financial markets over the past week.

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Why Aren’t Your Investments Doing Better?

December 6, 2018

As we approach year-end and you look at your investment statements, there is bound to be much discussion about how your investments performed. As has become usual in the past couple of years, there will be questions about and comparisons between what we expected and what we actually got. In other words, with the economy doing well, why aren’t your investments doing better?

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