Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

“Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”
— Ferris Bueller

June was a solid month for markets, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 3.59 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 1.23 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 6.03 percent. Solid earnings growth and a healthy economic backdrop supported equity markets during the month.

When we began 2024, six interest rate cuts were expected. But with stickier-than-expected inflation and strong job growth, markets significantly lowered those expectations. As a result, rising interest rates created headwinds for rate-sensitive assets, although a resilient economy helped lower-credit-quality parts of the fixed income market (e.g., high-yield and bank loans) outperform their higher-credit-quality counterparts.

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

June’s reports indicated signs of continued economic growth with signs of a potential slowdown ahead. Hiring remained solid, with 206,000 jobs added during the month. Service sector and consumer confidence both fell in June, while the yield curve inversion widened modestly.

Anyone familiar with the movie Jerry Maguire knows the phrase, “Show me the money!” Well, after several quarters of beating low expectations, it’s time for companies in the S&P 500 to show us the money and put up solid earnings growth. Analysts expect earnings growth of 8.8 percent as of July 3, 2024, which would be the highest growth rate since Q1 2022 when it was 9.4 percent.

The story of 2023 was the recession that never was and the end of the interest rate hiking cycle. Corporate earnings growth beat expectations, and the S&P 500 saw a 26 percent return. And in the first half of 2024, that upward trajectory largely continued. Large-cap stocks have led the way, while mid- and small-caps have lagged. Value stocks have underperformed growth stocks, with higher earnings growth for growth stocks keeping them in the lead. 

In my last blog post written just over three months ago, I discussed the S&P 500’s notable Q1 return and its historic five-month return. Historically, both indicated that a strong Q2 return was likely. Fast-forward three months and the S&P 500 posted a Q2 return of 3.92 percent.

June was a good month for markets, with most indices up in the low- to mid-single digits. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs during the month, and bond returns were positive due to falling interest rates. International markets were more mixed in June, as developed markets fell on rising political uncertainty while emerging markets were up for the month. Solid fundamentals and an improving economic backdrop helped support returns in June.