The Independent Market Observer

Looking Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2022

December 6, 2022

The October bounce continued in November, with the S&P 500 up 5.59 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 6.04 percent, while the Nasdaq trailed with a respectable gain of 4.51 percent. Internationally, the news was even better, with developed markets up 11.26 percent and emerging markets leading the pack with a 14.85 percent gain. It was a good month across the board and surprisingly so for international markets after an extended period of underperformance.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Remained Strong in November

December 5, 2022

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Market Thoughts for December 2022 [Video]

December 2, 2022

November was a good month for markets as the bounce from October continued. U.S. indices saw single-digit gains, and developed and emerging markets were up by double digits. The primary driver here was optimism that the Fed will slow future rate increases. On the economic side, job growth remained healthy, inflation dropped, and business confidence was strong.
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Jobs Report Preview: Will We Get a Miss?

November 30, 2022

It’s time for the monthly jobs report preview, which is worth doing for a few reasons. First, it lets us consider the most important driver of the economy both for history and for the immediate data. Second, it makes us think about our expectations. And third, of course, it will be in the headlines.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Durable Goods Orders Beat Expectations

November 28, 2022

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Thanksgiving Food for Thought: The Parable of the Turkey

November 23, 2022

Once upon a time, a turkey hatched in the dead of winter. He lived in a nice warm coop, had plentiful corn and seeds to eat, and spent much of his poult-hood playing with all of the other little turkeys.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Remain Strong as Housing Slows

November 21, 2022

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Inflation Has Peaked

November 18, 2022

To be honest, I probably would not have used that headline a couple of weeks ago. Although I spent about a month putting together my talk for Commonwealth’s National Conference, which pretty much comes to that conclusion, I was not yet at a point where I would put that as the headline. Even as I rehearsed the night before, I was thinking about how I would handle the talk if the next morning’s data release—just hours before the talk itself—put inflation back up again. I couldn’t rewrite my presentation, as there wasn’t enough time (and besides, the art department was already upset with me).

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2022 [SlideShare]

November 17, 2022

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2022 [SlideShare]

November 15, 2022

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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