Is Japanification the New Normal?

November 15, 2019

Brad here. I have been writing about how demographics have become increasingly determinative of economic performance, especially around growth and interest rates. Today, Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s senior research analyst for international equities, puts these ideas into a historical and geographic context: what has happened in Japan—and what that might mean for the U.S. and for our investments. Over to you, Anu.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

How Bad Will the Next Recession Be?

November 14, 2019

Over the past two days, we have looked at the signs that a recession is coming, going so far as trying to time it to the middle of next year. What we haven’t done is look at perhaps the most important question: how bad will the recession be when it hits? After all, the timing may not matter that much, but whether it’s going to be mild or severe certainly makes a difference.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

How Close Is the Next Recession?

November 13, 2019

Yesterday, I discussed how the recent un-inversion of the yield curve suggests a recession is likely in the next year. So, I thought I would extend the same analysis to the other three indicators we follow here on the blog. Looking at one indicator is valuable, but we really need to evaluate all four to see if they align with one another—or not.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, November 11, 2019 [Video]

November 13, 2019

I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 4:43) on Monday to discuss the industrial sector. Listen in to learn more.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Does an Un-Inverted Yield Curve Mean?

November 12, 2019

Today, we are going to do some “inside-baseball” analysis around the recent changes in interest rates and what they mean. Normally, I try not to get too far into the weeds here on the blog. But interest rates and the yield curve have gotten a lot of attention, and the recent headlines are not actually all that helpful. So, put on your thinking caps because we’re going to get a bit technical.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Consumer and Service Sector Confidence Rise

November 11, 2019

Last week was relatively quiet for economic news—the few major reports released related to international trade and service sector and consumer confidence. The trade deficit narrowed as expected, while service sector and consumer confidence both increased by more than anticipated. This week, a little more action is forthcoming, as we’re expecting updates on consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, and industrial production.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Don’t Invest Based on the Headlines

November 8, 2019

Last night, I spoke at a client event for one of our Commonwealth advisors. As usual, it was a great group—thoughtful, interested, full of great questions. And, of course, worried. Worried about politics, worried about the debt and deficit, and, most of all, worried about what all of this means for their kids.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via E-mail

New call-to-action
Crash-Test Investing
Commonwealth Independent Advisor

Hot Topics

Have a Question?

New Call-to-action



see all



The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.  

Third party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites. Information on such sites, including third party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.


Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®