Is Japanification the New Normal?

November 15, 2019

Brad here. I have been writing about how demographics have become increasingly determinative of economic performance, especially around growth and interest rates. Today, Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s senior research analyst for international equities, puts these ideas into a historical and geographic context: what has happened in Japan—and what that might mean for the U.S. and for our investments. Over to you, Anu.

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How Bad Will the Next Recession Be?

November 14, 2019

Over the past two days, we have looked at the signs that a recession is coming, going so far as trying to time it to the middle of next year. What we haven’t done is look at perhaps the most important question: how bad will the recession be when it hits? After all, the timing may not matter that much, but whether it’s going to be mild or severe certainly makes a difference.

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How Close Is the Next Recession?

November 13, 2019

Yesterday, I discussed how the recent un-inversion of the yield curve suggests a recession is likely in the next year. So, I thought I would extend the same analysis to the other three indicators we follow here on the blog. Looking at one indicator is valuable, but we really need to evaluate all four to see if they align with one another—or not.

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Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, November 11, 2019 [Video]

November 13, 2019

I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment starts at 4:43) on Monday to discuss the industrial sector. Listen in to learn more.

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What Does an Un-Inverted Yield Curve Mean?

November 12, 2019

Today, we are going to do some “inside-baseball” analysis around the recent changes in interest rates and what they mean. Normally, I try not to get too far into the weeds here on the blog. But interest rates and the yield curve have gotten a lot of attention, and the recent headlines are not actually all that helpful. So, put on your thinking caps because we’re going to get a bit technical.

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Monday Update: Consumer and Service Sector Confidence Rise

November 11, 2019

Last week was relatively quiet for economic news—the few major reports released related to international trade and service sector and consumer confidence. The trade deficit narrowed as expected, while service sector and consumer confidence both increased by more than anticipated. This week, a little more action is forthcoming, as we’re expecting updates on consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, and industrial production.

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Don’t Invest Based on the Headlines

November 8, 2019

Last night, I spoke at a client event for one of our Commonwealth advisors. As usual, it was a great group—thoughtful, interested, full of great questions. And, of course, worried. Worried about politics, worried about the debt and deficit, and, most of all, worried about what all of this means for their kids.

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