Are We Seeing Signs of Peak Growth?

July 18, 2019

In retrospect, a good candidate for demonstrating the peak of the boom may be yesterday’s announcement by Netflix that subscriber growth came in well below expectations during the second quarter: the number of subscribers was up by 2.7 million against expectations of 5.3 million. Worse, in its most developed market (i.e., the U.S.), subscriber numbers were actually down by 126,000, against an expected gain of 310,000. This marks the first time the company has ever seen a decline in U.S. subscribers.

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Debt Ceiling Crisis Heating Up

July 17, 2019

An issue I have been mentioning for the past couple of months is finally starting to get some attention: the U.S. is facing a potential crisis as the government runs out of money. Sometime this fall, likely in September, the government won't have the funds to pay its bills.

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Earnings Season: Here We Go Again

July 16, 2019

This morning, I spent some time speaking with a client who wanted to know why markets had slowed down recently. But I am not sure I agree with her. We hit all-time highs just the other day, although in recent days, the market has been taking a bit of a breather. Will that down time continue, or could we get another leg up?

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Appearance on Fox Business Network’s Countdown to the Closing Bell with Liz Claman, July 12, 2019 [Video]

July 15, 2019

Are fears keeping interest rates low? I discussed this and more Friday on Fox Business Network's Countdown to the Closing Bell with Liz Claman.

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Monday Update: Slow Week Focused on the Fed and Inflation

July 15, 2019

Last week was relatively light on the economic update front, with most attention being paid to a couple of inflation figures and communications from the Fed. This will be a much busier week of updates, with multiple major areas of the economy represented.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance’s The Ticker, July 12, 2019 [Video]

July 15, 2019

What can we expect this earnings season? Friday, I discussed this and more on Yahoo Finance’s The Ticker.

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Magazines and the Market

July 12, 2019

One of my colleagues sent around the most recent issue of The Economist, noting that the cover story, “Riding High: What Could Bring Down America’s Economy?”, may well be a contrarian indicator. I haven’t read the article yet, but I suspect the publication may be in on the irony here. Nonetheless, the fact that The Economist can put this story up could be a sign that the economy really is getting close to a turning point.

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