My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Last week saw a number of important economic data releases, with a focus on consumer and business confidence and the November employment report. The jobs report showed a notable slowdown in headline job growth in November, although the month’s underlying data was more encouraging. This week will be relatively quiet, with only three major data releases scheduled. They will cover international trade, consumer inflation, and a first look at consumer sentiment in December.

Brad here. What is the next crisis? We get this question a lot. To keep up on such trends, we have to watch many things, such as countries getting into trouble. Turkey, which is currently struggling with the financial markets, is one of those countries we are watching—but not, as Anu Gaggar shows, all that worried about. This is a good case study of how we keep an eye on emerging risks. Thanks, Anu!

November was a solid month for the economy but difficult in terms of both the medical news and financial markets. After a strong October, the Fed announced plans to start tightening monetary policy. Then we heard about a new variant of COVID-19. By month-end, the combined news pulled the markets down from midmonth gains to much more mixed results.

After a strong October, November saw generally weak performance in the markets. In the U.S., the Nasdaq showed a small gain, but the S&P and the Dow were down. These results were driven by the emergence of the Omicron variant and the Fed’s announcement that it would start to normalize monetary policy. Still, hiring for October was healthy, and layoffs dropped to pre-pandemic levels in November.

Once again, we have some volatility in the financial markets. With the appearance of the Omicron variant of the COVID virus, stocks have pulled back. This has caused all sorts of speculation about the resurgence of the pandemic, the derailing of the economy, and more significant downturns in the market. It’s time for a deep breath, as always, and a determination of what is—not what could or might be—happening.

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with reports on home sales, durable goods orders, personal income and spending, and the most recent FOMC meeting. Among the largely positive reports, the better-than-expected personal income and spending growth provided a highlight. This week will be another busy one for data updates, with a focus on consumer and business confidence and the November employment report.

Brad here. This post follows up on last week’s excellent post on the United Nations Climate Change Summit by Sarah Hargreaves. I would like to call your attention to the generational tilt of today’s guest author, Sara Bray. As one of Commonwealth’s youngest employees, she is attuned to what her generation (Generation Z) is thinking—which is not necessarily what old people like me are thinking. She offers valuable information about what is happening with climate change policy, insights into how future investors may see these issues, and some thoughts about what all this means for today. Thanks, Sara!

It has been proven that being grateful is one of the best ways to make your life better—to be both happier and more successful. Here on the blog, I try to focus on gratitude a couple of times a year, although I notice that I have not done so through 2020 or really 2021. Perhaps that’s understandable, with the pandemic, but still misguided. Despite the real problems and concerns, I have much to be grateful for, and I hope you do as well. So let’s take Thanksgiving as the perfect opportunity to remember that.