--- title: "2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here" description: Where will the markets and economy go in the second half of the year? Commonwealth's Chris Fasciano takes a look ahead in the 2025 Midyear Outlook. image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Hubspot-Blog-1-Featured-300x200.png --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print # [2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2025-midyear-outlook-where-the-economy-and-markets-go-from-here) Posted by [Chris Fasciano](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/chris-fasciano) This entry was posted on Jun 16, 2025, 10:54:46 AM and tagged [Commentary](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2025-midyear-outlook-where-the-economy-and-markets-go-from-here#comments-listing) ![2025 Midyear Outlook](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Midyear%20Outlook/IMO-Hubspot-Blog-1-Featured-300x200.png?width=300&height=200&name=IMO-Hubspot-Blog-1-Featured-300x200.png)The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room. Then there is the budget bill, which includes tax and spending cuts. It’s also being negotiated at a time when concerns about the country’s deficit have grown, given Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating. Last but certainly not least, the Fed has yet to lower rates this year. Turning to the markets, we saw equity markets rally to start the year—and then sell off 20 percent, led by the leaders of the past several years (i.e., the Magnificent Seven). Just when concerns reached their peak, the markets rallied more than 20 percent. While also volatile, 10-year Treasury yields began the year at 4.5 percent but remain in about the same place now. Given this backdrop, the key question remains: where will the economy and markets go from here? ##### The Economy: Can It Power Through? The answer to where markets may go depends on the path of the economy. And that path hinges on whether the weak, survey-based economic data eventually impacts the hard, measurable economic data or whether the economy can continue to power through various obstacles. ### Growth Drivers Assessing the potential positives for the economy, there are three areas to consider. **Labor market.** The labor market is the most important piece of economic data. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of the economy. If they continue to have jobs, they are likely to spend money. While job growth has softened this year (see chart below), it remains in positive territory despite the headwinds from federal government employee layoffs and immigration policy. ![U.S. nonfarm payrolls month-over-month](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Midyear%20Outlook/Blog%201%20-%20U.S.%20Nonfarm%20Payrolls%20MoM%20Chart%201.png?width=500&height=320&name=Blog%201%20-%20U.S.%20Nonfarm%20Payrolls%20MoM%20Chart%201.png) *Source: The Daily Shot, June 9, 2025* **Trade deals.** To feel comfortable making spending decisions, consumers and business executives need to see progress on trade deals that permanently lower or eliminate implemented tariffs. While the worst-case scenario for tariffs has been mitigated, they remain at a level (15 percent to 20 percent) that is higher than we have seen in almost 100 years. **Budget bill.** Progress on the budget reconciliation bill will be important for the economic outlook in the second half. In the version of the bill passed by the House of Representatives, the stimulative measures for the economy would unroll before drags from spending cuts occurred in the out years. Indeed, this stimulus will be needed to help offset the impact of tariffs currently being felt. ### The Risks **Tariffs.** The concern for economic growth in the back half of the year is that the on-again, off-again tariff implementation has already set in motion a series of events that will pressure the economy. The belief is that this impact has not yet been captured in the backward-looking hard data that has been reported so far. **Consumer and executive sentiment**. Here, we’re seeing weakening due to concerns about tariffs. Consumers might dial back their spending and increase savings due to higher prices and worries about job security. Executives might delay making long-term decisions about capital projects and hiring without clarity on global trade. These pauses, if they occur, would likely cause the economy to weaken in the second half of the year. **Rates and spending.** The impacts of tariffs and global supply chains, the budget bill’s effect on the deficit, and the Fed remaining on hold have all caused concerns for U.S. Treasury bond investors. Higher rates affect borrowing costs for consumers and could further weigh on spending.  ##### The Markets: More Volatility Ahead? After plummeting post-Liberation Day, U.S. equity markets have climbed higher on hopes that pauses on tariffs will lead to trade deals, making any economic impact short-lived. At the same time, the investment landscape has broadened this year, with international equities outperforming by a wide margin. Fixed income has also had a rollercoaster of a first half. But for all the concerns and headlines, the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury bond has stayed around 4.5 percent (plus or minus) for most of the year. **Valuations.** On the surface, the S&P 500 is not cheap, but this is masked by the concentration of the biggest holdings. After two years where those stocks led the market higher because they had the best growth stories, this has been a year where the rest of the market has come into focus. The disparity in valuations between those two groups can be seen here: ![P/E of the top 10 and remaining stocks in the S&P 500](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Midyear%20Outlook/Blog%201%20-%20P-E%20of%20the%20Top%2010%20and%20Remaining%20Stocks%20in%20the%20S%26P%20500%20Chart%202.png?width=500&height=384&name=Blog%201%20-%20P-E%20of%20the%20Top%2010%20and%20Remaining%20Stocks%20in%20the%20S%26P%20500%20Chart%202.png) *Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor's, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The top 10 S&P 500 companies are based on the 10 largest index constituents at the beginning of each quarter. As of May 31, 2025, the top 10 companies in the index were MSFT (6.8%), NVDA (6.6%), AAPL (6.0%), AMZN (3.9%), GOOGL/GOOG (3.6%), META (2.8%), AVGO (2.3%), TSLA (1.9%), BRK.B (1.8%), and JPM (1.5%). The remaining stocks represent the rest of the 492 companies in the S&P 500. Guide to the Markets-U.S. Data as of June 6, 2025.* That disparity in valuations for different parts of the market should lead to continued investor interest in a broadened portfolio across asset classes, geographies, styles, and sectors. **Earnings.** For investors to have confidence in valuations, they must believe that corporate America can continue to generate earnings growth. Executives have certainly noticed economic headlines: expected annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 has declined from 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 9 percent currently. That said, given all the headwinds, if that level of earnings growth can be achieved with a better outlook going into 2026, it should provide a reasonably positive backdrop for investors. **Interest rates.** While the Fed seems content to wait and see how the noise will impact the economic signals, bond investors haven’t hesitated to express their views. Those views have been wide, as bond yields plummeted on concerns about a global recession and then rose on beliefs that the “bond vigilantes” were returning to express their frustrations about the current path of fiscal policy. At times like these, it is important to step back and look at rates through a longer-term lens. This chart shows that current rates are in a range they have been in over the past two years. ![Blog 1 - Treasury Yields Chart 3](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2025%20Midyear%20Outlook/Blog%201%20-%20Treasury%20Yields%20Chart%203.png?width=500&height=281&name=Blog%201%20-%20Treasury%20Yields%20Chart%203.png) *Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Analysis references data back to 2020. \*Peak inversion is measured by the spread between the yield on a 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury. Guide to the Markets-U.S. Data as of June 6, 2025.* Rates at current levels create opportunities for savers and retirees looking for income. But concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the deficit suggest that diversification across durations is a good strategy for the fixed income portion of a portfolio.  ##### Look to the Data for Answers Headlines are likely to continue to drive short-term movements in both the equity and fixed income markets over the balance of the year. But it is the economic data that will tell us the ultimate story of how the year will unfold.  There is no doubt that trade policy has tested the resiliency of the U.S. economy so far this year. Still, the economy has shown strength. Excluding the impact of net exports on Q1’s slightly negative GDP report, the underlying economy continued to grow. The momentum that the U.S. economy had coming into the year has persevered throughout the headwinds. Barring further unforeseen shocks, we anticipate that the U.S. economy will continue to grow slowly in the back half of the year, which should support earnings growth. Volatility is likely to continue, but the April equity market lows priced in a fair amount of bad news on trade, economic growth, and earnings. Diversification has been the key to weathering the headlines to date, and we continue to believe that is the best way to position portfolios as we enter the second half of the year. *What’s ahead for equities? Find out in tomorrow’s Midyear Outlook post from Rob Swanke, senior investment research analyst.* - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLK7ycKZHwy3D8liOS43wjpm8pnIOq0thSKCok%2F8BRJjWFhm6I%2FGPnnYU8FbzzzCTKGa4xjVnvb681EBlh%2FW0dW49dLm0dbtS5sPyw1dwXrgFzwQcYPeQaIvi4tmwv0Rpwwv%2FtHDMgQGhISD2m5U464WNQ9J5ugQjNzQFGG9UzadYsVFjVlCnKiutzzy47krJjTXBCokf7iK2rY%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09) - [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08) - [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07) - [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06) - [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05) - [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04) - [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03) - [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02) - [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01) - [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12) - [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11) - [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10) - [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09) - [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08) - [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07) - [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06) - [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05) - [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04) - [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03) - [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02) - [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01) - [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12) - [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11) - [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10) - [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09) - [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08) - [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07) - [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06) - [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05) - [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04) - [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03) - [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02) - [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01) - [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12) - [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11) - [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10) - [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09) - [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08) - [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07) - [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06) - [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05) - [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04) - [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03) - [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02) - [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01) - [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12) - [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11) - [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10) - [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09) - [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08) - [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07) - [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06) - [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05) - [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04) - [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03) - [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02) - [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01) - [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12) - [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11) - [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10) - [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09) - [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08) - [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07) - [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06) - [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05) - [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04) - [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03) - [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02) - [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01) - [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12) - [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11) - [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10) - [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09) - [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08) - [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07) - [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06) - [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05) - [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04) - [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03) - [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02) - [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01) - [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12) - [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11) - [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10) - [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09) - [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08) - [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07) - [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06) - [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05) - [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04) - [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03) - [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02) - [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01) - [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12) - [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11) - [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10) - [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09) - [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08) - [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07) - [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06) - [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05) - [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04) - [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03) - [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02) - [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01) - [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12) - [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11) - [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10) - [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09) - [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08) - [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07) - [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06) - [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05) - [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04) - [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03) - [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02) - [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01) - [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12) - [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11) - [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10) - [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09) - [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08) - [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07) - [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06) - [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05) - [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04) - [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03) - [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02) - [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01) - [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12) - [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11) - [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10) - [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09) - [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08) - [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07) - [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06) - [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05) - [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04) - [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03) - [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02) - [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01) - [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12) - [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11) - [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10) - [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09) - [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08) - [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07) - [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06) - [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05) - [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04) - [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03) - [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02) - [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01) - [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12) - [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11) - [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10) - [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09) - [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08) - [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07) - [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06) - [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05) - [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04) - [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03) - [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02) - [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01) - [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12) - [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11) - [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10) - [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09) - [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08) - [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07) - [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06) see all ### Subscribe - [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml) ### Disclosure The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings. Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation. Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org) Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  Commonwealth Financial Network®