The Independent Market Observer

What Mattered This Week? No Slowdown Here

June 30, 2023

Unlike last week, when there really wasn’t much news, we did get quite a bit of data this week. And it was all positive. 

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Will the S&P 500 Keep Rising After Hitting a 52-Week High?

June 29, 2023

Brad here. We just published our Midyear Outlook, and as you saw yesterday, we remain cautious about the market for several reasons. At the same time, over the longer term, the market does tend to go up—and even in the shorter term, there are alternative possibilities to consider.

For most people, that means focusing on the risk, and that’s fine—but it misses half, and possibly more, of the big picture. So, for a look at the potential upside, here’s a great piece from my colleague Tom Logue on why the market may well keep rising, especially over the next year.

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2023 Midyear Outlook: Do Equity Markets Warrant Caution Ahead?

June 28, 2023

1969 is often remembered as one of the biggest years in pop culture history. Broadway Joe Namath guaranteed his upstart AFL Jets would win the Super Bowl—and then went out and did just that. The Beatles played together in public for the last time on a London rooftop. Neil Armstrong took one small step for man and one giant leap for mankind. About 400,000 people descended on a farm in New York for the Woodstock Music Festival. And finally, the Miracle Mets won the World Series. 

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Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Market Shows Improvement

June 26, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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What Mattered This Week? Market Reaction to Powell

June 23, 2023

In truth, not much happened on the news front this week. The housing data did come in better than expected, which was good news and supports the idea that a recession is still some ways away. But, as we discussed last week, we kind of knew that already. Fed Chair Powell testified that the central bank is still determined to get inflation down to the 2 percent target and that it plans to keep rates high—and maybe raise them further. Again, we knew that because he has been saying it over and over for more than a year now. This week was more about olds than news. 

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2023 Midyear Outlook: Is the Economy Half Empty or Half Full?

June 22, 2023

Heading into 2023, a looming recession dominated the headlines. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi quipped at the time, “CEOs are falling over themselves to say we’re falling into a recession. . . . Every person on TV says recession. Every economist says recession. I’ve never seen anything like it.” Fast-forward to today at the midyear point of 2023, and the data is telling a different story.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Slows in May

June 20, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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What Mattered This Week? Inflation and a Pause on Rate Hikes

June 16, 2023

This was, somewhat surprisingly, a good week for economic news. Inflation continued to drop, especially for producers, and people continued to shop. There were two main questions out there. Will inflation keep getting better, and is a recession on its way? Now we have some answers. Yes, inflation is still getting better. No, a recession is still some ways away. It really was about as good as it gets on the news front. 

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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2023 [SlideShare]

June 14, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Service Sector Sentiment Sours in May

June 12, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2023 [SlideShare]

June 7, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in May

June 5, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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What Mattered This Week? The Debt Ceiling, Inflation, and Jobs

June 2, 2023

I thought there would be only one thing that mattered this week—the debt ceiling. And that does matter. But this morning, the jobs report came in much hotter than expected, and that matters, too. So, this will be a longer post than I originally expected. 

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Market Thoughts for June 2023 [Video]

June 2, 2023

After a mixed April, markets pulled back in May. The exception was the Nasdaq, which was up by just under 6 percent. Other U.S. markets were flat or down, and international markets declined. The primary headwinds were the debt ceiling debate (which may soon be solved) and signs that inflation is picking up again. Still, job growth beat expectations, and consumer and business confidence ticked up.

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