Monday Update: Industrial Production Strong, Retail and Housing Sales Slowing

October 22, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic news, with a wide range of data from across the economy. This week will give us a final view of housing for the month, as well as whether business investment continues to improve. We’ll also get a preliminary look at how the economy performed in the third quarter.

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Appearance on CNBC's Nightly Business Report, October 18, 2018 [Video]

October 19, 2018

Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC's Nightly Business Report (my segment begins at 4:38) to discuss the global issues weighing on the market, as well as their potential impact on U.S. investors. Listen in to learn more.

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Thinking About October 19, 1987: Black Monday

October 19, 2018

Lots of things happened in 1987. Among others, I graduated from college. But, if you are in the financial industry at all, the mention of 1987 calls only one thing to mind: Black Monday (October 19, 1987), the day the stock market crashed. In many ways, this was the biggest nightmare of many stock investors. So, it is no wonder it continues to cast such a long shadow. In light of the recent market volatility, I think it makes sense to reflect on what happened 31 years ago today and what it might mean for investors today.

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Looking Beyond U.S. Markets

October 18, 2018

I am in the process of writing my speech for Commonwealth’s National Conference in November. I have decided to focus on really understanding what is going on with the trade war and what that might mean for investing. That understanding, of course, requires a fairly deep dive into both what is happening and where the war started.

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Market Volatility: The Real Lesson

October 17, 2018

I don’t get a lot of panicked calls and e-mails when the market melts up, like it did yesterday. When the market rises 2 percent, the sense seems to be that it’s just the universe working out the way it should. But when the market drops 2 percent? Something must be out of whack! And yet, both are signaling the same thing: the markets are struggling to put a price on future uncertainty. When markets bounce around that much, it is because there is real disagreement about what the future could hold and what that means for corporate profits and, therefore, for stock prices.

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What’s Next for the Markets?

October 16, 2018

After declines in the markets last week, the question at the start of this week was whether they would continue. The news from yesterday was, frankly, not all that encouraging. Markets did try to rally, only to fall at the end of the day. Nonetheless, there are reasons to believe that the markets are stabilizing and may even be headed higher over the next couple of weeks.

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Monday Update: Inflation Steady, Confidence Pulls Back

October 15, 2018

Last week was mostly about prices, although we finished with a look at consumer confidence. This is a busy week, with a wide range of data from across the economy.

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Time to Pay Attention to What the Market Is Telling Us

October 12, 2018

We had another bad day yesterday, with markets pulling back even further. This big decline, for the second day in a row, sent fear levels even higher. Overall, the drop so far has been about 7 percent for the S&P 500. This is a big loss over two days, especially by recent standards.

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A Bad Day in the Market: Is It a False Alarm?

October 11, 2018

Yesterday was a bad day in the market. The Dow was down more than 800 points (800 points!), and the S&P was down almost 100 points (100 points!). Surely, this is the beginning of the end.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2018

October 10, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for October? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2018

October 9, 2018

The good news is that confidence was strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in a big way, to a 21-year high. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. But the less good news is that job growth weakened on a monthly basis and interest rates rose. For both, though, there are other factors to consider. Job growth, for example, was revised up significantly for previous months, more than offsetting the monthly shortfall and keeping the annual growth figures healthy. Plus, rising interest rates widen the spread, reducing the chance of a yield curve inversion.

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Monday Update: Business Confidence High, but Job Growth Disappoints

October 8, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic data, with looks at business sentiment, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market. This week’s data digs into pricing and inflation, as well as gives us another look at consumer confidence.

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Is the Latest Economic News As Bad As It Sounds?

October 5, 2018

Looking at the headlines, this has been a tough week for the U.S. economy. Interest rates spiked. Job growth dropped substantially. Oil prices are rising. So, we have three key economic and market risk indicators moving in the wrong direction, and markets dropped yesterday as a result. Is it time to panic?

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A Look Back at Q3 2018

October 4, 2018

Now that the third quarter of 2018 is over, we can look back and gain some perspective on what happened. It was a good three months, for the economy and for the markets—at least here in the U.S. Abroad, the news was much more mixed, particularly for emerging markets. Let’s take a look at some of the big ideas that drove the quarter.

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Quick Takes from the Financial News: USMCA, Amazon, Powell’s Speech

October 3, 2018

There’s a lot going on in the world. As such, I thought today would be best served by taking a quick look at some of the financial news—and what the headlines mean in the bigger picture.

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Market Thoughts for October 2018 [Video]

October 2, 2018

September was a bit of a mixed month: the S&P and Dow did well, while the Nasdaq pulled back on weakness in technology. But for the quarter as a whole, all three indices were up substantially. In the U.S., hiring remained strong, wage growth picked up, and consumer confidence reached an 18-year high. There is also a huge amount of confidence in the business world.

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Monday Update: Confidence Spikes, Spending Growth Moderates

October 1, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic data front. It gave us a solid look at the consumer—both how they feel and what they are actually doing—as well as at business activity and some housing data. The week ahead will also be very busy. We’ll have looks at business sentiment across the board, the trade balance, and, most important, the job market.

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune into Bloomberg Radio's Bloomberg Baystate Business Show on October 24 at 4:30 PM ET to hear Brad talk about the markets. Check your local listings for availability. 

 

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