Much of the economic data suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter is passing—this morning’s personal spending report is a good example. But, as always, what matters most for the economy is jobs.
May 31, 2018
Much of the economic data suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter is passing—this morning’s personal spending report is a good example. But, as always, what matters most for the economy is jobs.
May 30, 2018
First, there was “Grexit,” which was the name given to the possibility that Greece would leave the eurozone. Then, there was “Brexit,” the plan for the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, which is actually happening (at least potentially). Now, we have “Italeave,” which I think sounds better than the other contender, “Italexit.” So what’s going on with Italy?
May 29, 2018
Last week was a slow one for economic news, but the releases we did see were important. This week, we will get a broad look at the economy.
May 25, 2018
As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, I would like to take a moment to honor members of the U.S. military for their service and their sacrifice. I wrote the following post in 2015, although the sentiment remains true today.
May 24, 2018
After last week’s posts on how I invest, I have been talking with a number of people, in person and online, about how they approach investing. It has been a very interesting and educational week, and I have come out from it with one conclusion: investing is hard.
May 23, 2018
We closed yesterday’s post on passive investing with the observation that while market-capitalization-weighted indices (i.e., stock indices that include stocks based on how much the company is worth) have certain biases baked in, other indices have their own—but different—biases. There really is no perfect solution, and you just have to be aware of the bets you are making. That is what we will talk about today.
May 22, 2018
After last week’s series about how I invest, a reader raised an excellent point with respect to passive investing. With all of the flows into passive strategies—pushing many stocks higher without regard to their individual merits—is it a safe time to go passive?
May 21, 2018
Last week's economic news was all about whether there are signs of a rebound after a weak first quarter. This week will be a slow one, but the releases we will see are important.
May 18, 2018
After going through my investment thought processes over the past couple of days, today I am going to outline—in general—what I actually plan to do with my excess cash. So, let’s revisit some of the ideas we’ve talked about this week.
On Thursday, I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss the current state of the market, rising rates, and investor skepticism. Overall, things are good, so how much better can they get? Listen in to learn more.
May 17, 2018
We closed yesterday’s post on whether markets are efficient with the conclusion that it could be possible to beat the market. But, to do so, we would need either better information or to view things differently—specifically referencing time horizons as one way to do that. Let’s start with a couple of areas where better information is a real possibility. Then, we’ll take a deeper look at the second idea, which is both more subtle and more interesting.
May 16, 2018
We closed yesterday’s post on how to invest with the question of whether markets were efficient—and what that would mean for how we invest. A foundational assumption of most investment theories is that markets are efficient, which is to say that all information is reflected in an asset’s price. If this holds true, then it shouldn’t be possible to beat the market because—by definition—everything that could affect prices is already accounted for.
May 15, 2018
Given what I do all day, you might imagine I have this investing thing all figured out. In fact, I probably wrestle with it more than most people. Part of what I do is think about many different types of investments and strategies. With all of those options in my head, it can be hard to make decisions about what is best, for me, at any given time and situation. Right now, for instance, I am in the process of putting what is (for me) a largish amount of cash to work. Do I buy in, despite my concerns about valuations? Do I wait and forgo any interim returns? If I decide to buy in, what should I buy?
May 14, 2018
Last week was largely focused on prices, although we got a look at consumer confidence. This week, we’ll be watching the economic data to see whether earlier signs of a slowdown are passing.
May 11, 2018
After writing yesterday’s post on the price of oil, I thought it might be useful to take a longer-term look at the behavior of oil. I think this will provide some context to yesterday’s discussion, as well as to future developments. To start, let’s look at the price history over the past 30 years.
May 10, 2018
Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent decision by the U.S. to reimpose sanctions on Iran has rattled markets even further. We know that oil prices are a key risk indicator for the economy, but is it time to start worrying? Plus, what do higher oil prices mean—if anything—for the financial markets?
As we start moving further into May, I think it’s a good time to take a look back at April’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.
May 8, 2018
Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for May? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
May 7, 2018
Last week was an extremely busy one for economic news, which gave us a look at all major sectors and concluded with the all-important employment report. Overall, while the economic statistics remain quite positive, there are signs of slowing. This week, the main focus will be on prices, plus we’ll get a look at consumer confidence.
May 4, 2018
April’s data continued to be solid overall. Job growth recovered and March’s weak report was revised upward significantly, easing one concern. Consumer confidence also bounced back a bit. More worrying is that business confidence moved further off the high, although this would be a change in trend rather than an immediate concern. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful, despite the recent rate increase. Overall, the economic data indicates that growth continues, although it may have peaked.
A reader asked the other day, simply, whether I was worried about the debt. As I was considering a response, I realized it was going to be a long one and that I had not written about this issue for quite a while. So, here we are.
As we move away from the financial crisis and as policies normalize, it is a good time to take a look at what the removal of those policies might mean. After all, many of the actions taken in the aftermath of the crisis were explicitly designed to do certain things. If those actions were successful, then presumably their reversal would have the opposite effect.
May 1, 2018
April was a good month, as both U.S. and developed markets were up. This news was encouraging, indicating that the economy seems to be bouncing back after two down months. In fact, the fundamentals are quite strong, with company earnings surprising to the upside to a degree we have never seen before. Plus, sales beat expectations, which is a positive reflection of the markets and the economy.
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Bloomberg Intelligence, Israel Talks, China Markets
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Seeking Alpha, 10/4/24
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Advisor Perspectives, 9/12/24
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