Yesterday, the quarterly growth figure for the economy as a whole, known as gross domestic product (GDP), came out at 1.5 percent. This figure was in line with expectations but was nevertheless disappointing since it declined from 3.9 percent in the second quarter. This gives rise to certain questions: Why did the GDP decline, and is this is a harbinger of future trouble?

As I wrote on Monday, no one expected anything of substance from the Federal Reserve. But, once again, the Fed surprised us. The September meeting was a trick, when it chose not to raise rates. But the October meeting looks like it may end up being a treat. I don’t mean in a policy way (rates remained unchanged, as expected). Instead, the Fed has very explicitly ruled out economic risks to the extent that a rate increase for December—which most had written off—is back on the table.

In case you’ve forgotten, the Treasury Department has said that, as of November 3 (that’s five days from now), it will no longer have the money to pay all the bills that come due. That could lead to a U.S. default on its obligations, which could be a big deal.

Fortunately, Washington has now taken a step toward a solution.

It’s surprising how worries come and go. Not that long ago, there was a real fear that China could—by dumping its vast store of U.S. Treasury bonds on the market—drive rates up and cripple the U.S. economy. As China’s economy has weakened, however, we haven’t heard so much of that, and worries have shifted to other ways that China could tank the world economy. But, in fact, could this be a more serious issue now than it was then?

As I wrote in a previous post, housing is a key reflector of consumer expectations. And even with recent signs of slowing in the economy, last week the housing market had some results that were much better than expected, pointing to continued growth. In today's Monday Update, I'll take a deeper look at the numbers.

Yesterday, I talked about housing demand and concluded that it is not only healthy but likely to increase. This represents only one-half of the picture, however. In many ways, the more important half is what that demand means for the housing supply. Home building requires labor, materials, financing, and most other sectors of the economy, so it can provide even more of a boost to the economy as a whole.

I held a client webinar yesterday that included a look at housing demand. As part of my commentary, I made the point that housing is actually an excellent leading indicator for the rest of the economy and a key part of any future growth. At that point, I realized I had not done a detailed update on this topic in the blog for some time—so here we go.

Just in case anyone has forgotten, it’s projected that the U.S. will run out of money to pay its bills on November 3, which is less than two weeks away. Since we hit the debt ceiling some time ago, the Treasury has been using the “usual extraordinary measures” to pay the bills—including raiding other federal accounts (e.g., federal employee retirement system balances). But even that cash will run out in early November. Once again, a crisis is coming.

I have talked about valuations quite a bit recently, and, as I have noted, they are certainly important. Valuations, however, are largely subjective and change over time; there is little you can do to manage or react to them.

Earnings, however, are objective—the numbers are what they are, come out every quarter, and reflect actual business activity. As such, we need to watch them even more closely.

Overall, the economic news last week was balanced. In this Monday Update, I’ll review the good and the bad, as well as what to watch for in the week ahead.

We know the Federal Reserve is worried about inflation being too low, and yesterday’s figures seem to substantiate that fear. With headline inflation over the past month down by 0.2 percent, and flat over the past year, it seems that prices are indeed just sitting there.

Walmart's expected earnings decline is bad news for the company, but could it actually be good news for consumers? Learn what I think about Walmart's decision to raise wages, which I discussed in an appearance Wednesday on CNBC's Power Lunch program.

One of yesterday’s big news stories was the surprise announcement by Walmart that, instead of growing by 4 percent (as expected), earnings per share were expected to decline by between 6 percent and 12 percent in fiscal year 2017. Shares, of course, dropped substantially, and the market as a whole took note. Lower earnings are bad, right? For the company, and quite possibly for the market, this is certainly true. But is it bad for the economy and the country? I don’t think so.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a major trade agreement among 12 countries, including most of the major economic powers in Asia, along with the U.S.—but notably excluding China. After five years of negotiations, the participating parties reached accord on October 5, and the agreement is now working its way toward approval in the various national legislatures. But is the TPP a good idea?

There are two components to stock markets: earnings and how much investors are willing to pay for them. Recently, much of the commentary has been on valuations, with the implicit assumption that earnings would more or less take care of themselves. Although this has been the case for the past several years, at least on a per-share basis, one of my colleagues and an investment research associate, Sam Millette, recently pulled some figures that gave me pause.

Overall, last week’s data came in generally positive, but in this Monday update, I highlight some economic news in the week ahead that may be cause for concern.

Sometimes, I really hate being right. A few weeks ago, I wrote that the Washington, DC, political environment had deteriorated and that the current go-round on the debt ceiling was likely to be even more contentious than the last one, two years ago. Sure enough, with the resignation of Speaker John Boehner—and the withdrawal yesterday of his heir apparent—the House appears ungovernable. Without some type of Republican internal agreement on at least whom to elect as speaker, it’s hard to see any resolution to the debt ceiling debate, which is likely going to hit in the next couple of weeks.

I wrote yesterday about the economy and how I believe that, while we are seeing some weak data, we are likely experiencing a temporary “snowdown” (much as we saw the past two winters) rather than a true slowdown. Still, we have to ask ourselves, Is the market pullback similarly temporary, or is it the first stage of a deeper correction?

There has been a lot of talk in the financial media about an economic slowdown, with a sense—explicit in some cases—that a recession is a real possibility. Some of that talk, I will admit, has come from me. Given some of the recent bad reports, particularly the jobs report, I do feel that there is a possibility that the trend has changed. After giving it a lot of thought, though, I do not think this is what’s actually happening.

Is Wall Street bracing for the worst year since 2008? Watch my interview on Fox Business Network’s Risk & Reward to hear my thoughts on the state of the markets and hedge fund performance. 

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

We have actually seen some moves worth watching since last month, with signs of slowing, although the overall take remains positive.

Although last week started reasonably strong, it ended with a severe disappointment. This Monday update takes a closer look at the economic data.

In yesterday’s post, I reviewed the market data—including valuations, changes in margin debt, and changes in the market cap as a percentage of GDP—for some potential signals of a market crash. All seemed to provide valuable insight but were certainly not definitive. Part of the problem is that these signals can give false alarms or give correct signals that nonetheless result in only minor downturns. So, another set of filters is needed to help refine the analysis.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent declines in U.S. and international markets, spurred by a slowdown in growth and declining consumer confidence. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance, highlighting an increase in consumer spending.

In a continuation of my post from yesterday, I am not aware of any single indicator that can tell us when a market crash will occur. (I wish I were!) So, what I have done is reviewed previous significant market downturns and determined some common contributory factors that make sense in theory, as well as empirically.