The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter

July 31, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Consumers, Economic Growth, and the Fed

July 28, 2023

There was a lot more data this week than last—and all of it was good. Everything we are seeing suggests that the economy is still growing, despite the headlines and fears. While there are certainly risks out there, the data is showing a resilience that no one expected, and that is a good sign for the future.

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Putting the Fed Meeting into Focus

July 26, 2023

With the Fed’s regular meeting scheduled to conclude today, there has been a tremendous amount of commentary around what the Fed is going to do, what it should do, what it might do, and so forth. The consensus is that the Fed will raise rates 25 bps and then signal—something—going forward.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Continue to Rise

July 24, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Economic News a Mixed Bag

July 21, 2023

This will be a short post for a couple of reasons. First, there isn’t a ton of news to talk about and nothing really notable. Second, I want to head up to Maine for the weekend to eat lobster rolls and hopefully get some sun. Here’s hoping.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2023 [SlideShare]

July 19, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Slows in June

July 17, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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What Mattered This Week? Inflation

July 14, 2023

There was one word that mattered this week: inflation. The consumer and producer data reports were released, and they both said the same thing. Inflation is down, significantly. That news took interest rates down and the stock market up. It was a good week from economic and investment standpoints. To understand why, let’s dig in a bit.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2023 [SlideShare]

July 12, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, director, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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2023 Midyear Outlook: Asset Allocation Risks and Opportunities

July 11, 2023

What a year it has been for financial markets. There have been several negative factors in play, including a high-single-digit inflation print, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and several regional bank failures. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 finished the second quarter up 17 percent for the year. Go figure!

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Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in June

July 10, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Looking Back at the Markets in June and Ahead to July 2023

July 7, 2023

June was a strong month and closed out a generally solid quarter, especially for U.S. stocks. The U.S. indices were up significantly for the month, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq showed positive gains for the quarter, although the Dow lagged. International markets also did well in June but ended the quarter flat. Fixed income, on the other hand, was much weaker for both the month and quarter.

Financial markets were clearly in a risk-on mode, which benefited riskier investments like tech stocks at the expense of more boring ones.

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2023 Midyear Outlook: Fixed Income May Offer Compelling Options

July 6, 2023

Throughout 2022, high levels of volatility across all major asset classes created a difficult environment. Fixed income investors were hit especially hard, as rising yields—brought on by surging inflation—weighed heavily on bond prices. Although not ideal, this helped set the stage for a more positive start to 2023.

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Market Thoughts for July 2023 [Video]

July 3, 2023

U.S. stocks were up for June and the quarter while gains in international markets last month left them flat for the quarter. Fixed income didn’t fare as well. Market performance reflected positive economic news, with continued strong job creation, income and spending growth, and improving consumer confidence. But while inflation is down, it may not stay that way.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Improves

July 3, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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