The Independent Market Observer

The Return of the Debt Limit

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Find me on:

This entry was posted on Mar 16, 2015 1:48:00 PM

and tagged In the News

Leave a comment

debt limitOnce again, we’ve hit the federal government’s borrowing limit. Having maxed out its credit card with the bond markets, the U.S. government is now pursuing the “usual emergency measures” while waiting for Congress to approve an increase in the debt limit.

We’ll probably be hearing about this, at high volume, for quite a while—and, based on past experience, right up until the last minute—so it’s worth understanding what is likely to happen.

Not exactly a crisis

Just as with the last two go-rounds, there’s no economic reason that hitting the debt limit should be a crisis. The problems are political and center around getting an agreement that enough members of Congress support. Unlike last time, though, the battle will not be between the Republicans and Democrats, at least initially, but between different Republican factions.

With Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, there is, in theory, no place for the Democrats to insert themselves in the political machinery until a bill is sent to the White House for signature or veto. I suspect they are quietly grateful for this and very willing to let the Republicans battle it out on their own.

The two major groups in play appear to be Republican defense hawks and fiscal hawks. Defense hawks are insisting on spending more on the military than the law allows, and the fiscal hawks are insisting that total spending remain within the constraints of the law.

What is this law?

Remember the fiscal cliff? Well, it was resolved by the Budget Control Act of 2011, which placed caps on government spending for the next 10 years. Those constraints, better known as “the sequester,” are still in place, limiting proposed spending. In order to spend more than the law allows, the act would have to be modified or repealed.

From a commentator’s perspective, all I can say is “thank you” to the U.S. government. This will give me lots to write about. From a citizen’s perspective, all I can say is “here we go again.” We can now look forward to a couple of months of increasingly contentious public debate, along with rising panic about the implications of an eventual default on U.S. debt.

Why I’m not really worried

I’d be more concerned had we not been through this before—several times. I would be more concerned if I wasn’t confident that Congress will, after exhausting all other alternatives, do the right thing. I would be more concerned if the politics lined up differently.

But this time around:

  • Both the Democrats and a substantial part of the Republican Party want to spend more. There is a centrist coalition capable of acting.
  • The economy is much stronger than in the previous confrontations.
  • The most hard-line of the fiscal hawks on the Republican side have consistently lost at the end of the day.

I’ve written about this before, many times. If you want to look ahead to where we might be going, check out this piece I wrote in late 2013, which attempted to tie everything together. In retrospect, it did a pretty good job of describing the problem and how it was likely to be solved.

We will be returning to this topic—again and again, I suspect—but for the moment, just remember one thing: although the debt limit will be a major headline generator, it will very probably come to nothing.

                        Subscribe to the Independent Market Observer            

Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®