After a terrible fourth quarter in the financial markets, we had a sizable bounce in January. Markets were up significantly, both here in the U.S. and around the world, and sentiment seemed to change markedly from pessimism to a new optimism. The question going forward is whether things have really changed that much.

With the brutally cold weather locking down large parts of the country, the hope today is that the Fed will heat up the markets by both holding rates steady (as expected) and dialing back the liquidation of its balance sheet. Personally, I think investors should be careful what they wish for. If the Fed really does slow the quantitative tightening process, in conjunction with keeping rates steady, it could be a sign of an even colder economy ahead.

I found a really interesting chart in my e-mail this morning. I think its implications extend well beyond what it actually shows, and so I thought it worth sharing. The chart is below, but the full version and discussion can be found on howmuch.net.

Yesterday, we talked about what consumer confidence might be telling us about the economy. It seems the current news is great—with confidence very high and up over the past year. But a closer look at the data showed that there are some real signs that the future might be considerably less cheerful than the current data would suggest.

As I’ve noted before on this blog, in many ways, the current economy is as good as it gets. It is bound to moderate or roll over—only to see things get even better. This scenario has been going on for some time now, to the point where I want to think about what could really signal a downturn. Could consumer confidence be one of those signals?

In a previous life, I was involved in real estate, including properties catering to the growing older population. Those properties were divided into three main categories: active adult communities, aimed at the vigorous, relatively young retirees; assisted living communities, aimed at those who wanted some extra help; and skilled nursing facilities, aimed at those who needed full-time care. Respectively, they were known in the industry as the go-gos, the slow-gos, and the no-gos.

I wrote about the big-picture effects of the government shutdown the other day, which are likely to be longer term. As it continues, though, the shorter-term effects continue to pile up. As such, it is time to take a look at what the shutdown means now and over the next month or so.

With the failure of the Brexit vote and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, we find ourselves in a state of politics as unusual. Let’s take a closer look at each to see what I mean.

Should we care about the Brexit vote? In a word, yes. What happens in the vote today matters to us as both U.S. citizens and, especially, investors. It will help determine what the future of the world economy looks like, and it could potentially shake up the global financial system.

We’ve been talking all week about the economy, the markets, and the risks therein. But looking back on these posts, there seems to be a glaring hole: the government shutdown.

That absence wasn’t an accident. In the longer term, which is how investors should look at things, the current government shutdown very likely won’t matter. As such, it hasn’t warranted a discussion. The shutdown will last until it’s over. Then, we will move on, just as we have done with past shutdowns.