--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (70) description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (70) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Federal5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-to-the-rescue) ## [The Fed to the Rescue?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-to-the-rescue) June 20, 2019 The market has concluded that the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, along with the accompanying statement from yesterday's meeting, is unreservedly dovish. The expectation is for two more rate cuts this year, starting in July. Markets are, unsurprisingly, cheering. Lower rates are good for economic growth and for stocks. In fact, that reasoning would explain why the Fed would cut. If the Fed does cut, it will be stimulative and should help sustain the expansion—as intended. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-to-the-rescue) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-to-the-rescue#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/fed-building.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-fed-sit-tight-on-interest-rates) ## [Will the Fed Sit Tight on Interest Rates?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-fed-sit-tight-on-interest-rates) June 19, 2019 Today’s post will be a brief one as I am on the road. Besides, we don’t yet know how the main event of the day—the Fed meeting—will turn out. Will the Fed cut rates? Drop a strong hint that a rate cut is coming? Or just sit tight? And what will the White House do? [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-fed-sit-tight-on-interest-rates) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-fed-sit-tight-on-interest-rates#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-mobile.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headline-risk-works-both-ways) ## [Headline Risk Works Both Ways](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headline-risk-works-both-ways) June 18, 2019 Weeks of worry—about trade, growth, and Europe—knocked markets down. But today we have the reversal. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), has once again come out in favor of looser monetary policy and lower rates, which cheered markets globally. And this morning, President Trump tweeted that he would be meeting with China’s leader, which further cheered markets. As I write this, the S&P 500 is up by 1 percent and well over 2,900. This level takes us to within 1 percent of a new all-time high. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headline-risk-works-both-ways) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/headline-risk-works-both-ways#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/fed-building.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-inverted-yield-curve-the-fed-and-recession) ## [The Inverted Yield Curve, the Fed, and Recession](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-inverted-yield-curve-the-fed-and-recession) June 13, 2019 One of the most reliable signals of a pending recession is when, in the jargon, the yield curve inverts. This sounds like a fancy phrase, but it simply means that investors demand to be paid more for a short-term loan than for a long-term one. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-inverted-yield-curve-the-fed-and-recession) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-inverted-yield-curve-the-fed-and-recession#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/quick-takes-the-economy-the-fed-and-more) ## [Quick Takes: The Economy, the Fed, and More](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/quick-takes-the-economy-the-fed-and-more) June 12, 2019 This has been a busy week of catching up after attending another round of excellent Commonwealth conferences. So, today I have just a few quick takes on some wide-ranging topics. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/quick-takes-the-economy-the-fed-and-more) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/quick-takes-the-economy-the-fed-and-more#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reality-check-the-risks-are-rising) ## [Reality Check: The Risks Are Rising](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reality-check-the-risks-are-rising) June 6, 2019 I do a semiannual update of my economic and market outlook every year, usually in several versions over a one- to two-month period. In the past couple of years, that strategy has worked. Fundamental conditions didn't change much over that period, even though headlines often did. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reality-check-the-risks-are-rising) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reality-check-the-risks-are-rising#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2019) ## [A Look Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June 2019](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2019) June 5, 2019 “Sell in May and go away” was certainly on point last month. With U.S. and global markets down significantly, investors closed out the month with a level of worry we have not seen since the end of 2018. Let’s take a look back at this volatile month, as well as what we might expect going forward. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2019) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-may-and-ahead-to-june-2019#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/stock-closeup.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-hits-turbulence-but-economy-still-growing) ## [Market Hits Turbulence, But Economy Still Growing](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-hits-turbulence-but-economy-still-growing) June 4, 2019 Yesterday, the tech stocks got hit hard on news that Washington will be taking a much harder look at regulating them. Trade worries continue to reverberate throughout the market. And fears of a more severe slowdown—or even a recession—are building as the yield curve remains inverted. Further, the Nasdaq moved into correction territory yesterday (defined as a decline of more than 10 percent from the peak), although as of this writing, it was showing signs of a strong bounce today.  [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-hits-turbulence-but-economy-still-growing) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-hits-turbulence-but-economy-still-growing#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/here-we-go-again-proposed-tariffs-on-mexico) ## [Here We Go Again? Proposed Tariffs on Mexico](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/here-we-go-again-proposed-tariffs-on-mexico) May 31, 2019 Much of the recent market decline has been due to worries that the U.S. and China have been intensifying the trade confrontation, rather than trying to come to a deal. With the recent announcement by President Trump that he intends to impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico, trade risks have risen even further and markets have continued to drop. So, what could this latest round of tariffs mean for investors and for the markets? [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/here-we-go-again-proposed-tariffs-on-mexico) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/here-we-go-again-proposed-tariffs-on-mexico#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/downturn-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-investors-can-learn-from-1998) ## [What Investors Can Learn from 1998](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-investors-can-learn-from-1998) May 30, 2019 Yesterday, we talked about why it might be [1998](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-it-1998-all-over-again-for-the-markets)—or 1999—all over again. After all, many of the conditions are similar. Although growth continues for now and we may get a lifeline, you might be concerned that the economy could be settling into a recession in the next couple of quarters. Our most recent experience of a recession and market decline, 2008–2009, has left horrific memories. So, should we be panicking? In a word, no. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-investors-can-learn-from-1998) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-investors-can-learn-from-1998#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/69) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary/page/71) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLKZssdNOfwy3zeneWCx6BzMwp1PkPtbqqTkVpBg8gwfVxv0knucD6qmawq%2Fyts%2FxJSB5P%2FopriulgSEvhM2BmbNQQ1oNQiHsVtZbDvb4SbPE4YepkF7PXodT%2BkrtC5A6cekkrfo14vvhHpkE8h5YwpV3kDdPQ3I%2FNvmUbXacTdZ0%2BeC6SX%2B2ME%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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