To follow up on my most recent Economic Risk Factor Update and Monthly Market Risk Update, as well as on my colleague Anu’s post on whether the Fed might resort to negative rates, I want to think about where the economy is headed. As I pointed out in the risk updates, the headline news is positive. All the economic indicators that I follow are outside the risk zones, market risk indicators have improved over the past month, and, in general, things are good. At least markets certainly think so. But as I look beyond the headline data, there is a strong case to be made that the current good conditions are much more fragile than they seem.

Brad here. With the Fed widely perceived as having hit pause on rate increases, with the European Central Bank launching stimulus again, and with rates declining around the world (back into negative territory, in many cases), it is time to start thinking about what the Fed might do in the next recession. Anu Gaggar of our Research department put some relevant ideas together that we should be considering as we contemplate the next couple of years. Thanks, Anu!

There’s no getting around it: the jobs report, with only 20,000 jobs added last month across the entire U.S., stinks. This is a terrible report, and it should strike fear and loathing into the hearts of every economist and citizen in the country. This opinion is the bulk of what I suspect you will be hearing, and it is largely correct.

Yesterday, I wrote about how we’re approaching the 10th anniversary of the market bottom, when the S&P 500 touched 666 and then started to rebound. Today, I want to talk about a different market milestone: March 10, 2000 (19 years ago this weekend). That’s when the Nasdaq Composite, the tech index that exemplified the dot-com boom, peaked and started to decline.

I am in Colorado this week at a Commonwealth conference, spending some time at high altitude when I normally live pretty much at sea level. The altitude seems somehow appropriate, though, when I look at where the markets are right now compared with where they were 10 years ago. We have climbed to astonishing heights since the bottom—heights almost no one expected back then.

From a financial markets perspective, last month was a good one. U.S. markets were up between 3 percent and 4 percent, developed international markets were up 2 percent to 3 percent, and even emerging markets managed to notch a small gain. Overall, February was another step forward from the decline at the end of last year, suggesting markets have regained their footing.

Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, is from India and regularly goes home to visit. I am excited to share her eyewitness, informed report on what is going on there. At Commonwealth’s National Conference, I highlighted the potential opportunities in India. Here, Anu makes very clear that the opportunities are real—as are the risks. Take it away, Anu!

Yesterday, we talked about the deficit and debt. We came to the conclusion that a modest deficit was not necessarily a problem. But the increase in the debt in recent years—and, this year, in the deficit—made both a problem that will have to be dealt with.

Recently, there have been a number of headlines declaring that the national debt has moved above $22 trillion, with an emphasis on how much it has gone up in recent decades.

Well, the headlines are true, as you can see in the chart below. In fact, we have added about $16 trillion since 2000, or about $900 million per year; $11 trillion since 2008, or about $1.1 trillion per year; and $2 trillion since the end of 2016.

Brad here. One of the recent concerns about the economy has been the housing market slowdown. Housing involves not only home sales but also many ancillary activities (e.g., construction and financing). It is a significant economic actor in itself and a good indicator of how consumers feel overall. Housing is also at the center of many people’s economic decisions. In fact, I get more questions about housing than about anything else from employees here at Commonwealth. For today, Pete Essele has put together a good look at the current market and how it is likely to evolve over the next several months. Thanks, Pete!