Although there was some good news last month—job growth bounced back to come in well above expectations—the overall trend remains negative. Confidence has continued to decline, while the yield curve hit an official inversion as of the end of June. That said, conditions remain generally favorable, with all metrics in expansionary territory except the yield curve, but there is no doubt the risk level has risen further. That risk still does not look immediate, but that point may be getting closer.

After a difficult first quarter, April’s data was better. But, in aggregate, May has not continued that improvement. Job growth has slowed further, taking it closer to a risk level. Plus, the interest rate outlook continues to deteriorate, with the yield curve now inverted for a period of weeks. Not all the news was bad: both consumer and business confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. Overall, though, risk levels have increased somewhat.

After a difficult quarter, April’s data showed signs of meaningful improvement. Job growth bounced back, easing a major concern. Plus, consumer confidence improved, which should help growth going forward. On the other hand, business confidence dipped further, and the yield curve remains close to a risk level.

The primary worry over the past month has been employment: was the very weak February job number a one-off or a sign of something worse? Fortunately, it looks like the former, which eases the primary risk. Unfortunately, we saw the other risk factors continue to trend down, suggesting that the economy might well be slowing even more than expected. Here, one key point at month-end was the brief inversion of the yield curve, which raised concerns.

After signs of weakness in January, the question was whether we would see a rebound in February. In some areas—consumer and business confidence—we did, largely driven by the end of the government shutdown. This confidence rebound has reduced risk going forward, although we need to pay attention to whether it holds.

As far as we know, the economic news remained solid if somewhat mixed last month. The caveat here is that the government shutdown delayed some reports. The core data we look at, however, is available.

Despite last month’s political and market turmoil, the economic news remained solid if somewhat mixed. Both consumer and business confidence pulled back a bit but remained at healthy levels overall. Hiring rebounded strongly after weak results last month. This rebound should help maintain consumer and business confidence going forward, despite the December pullbacks. Finally, longer-term interest rates, which had been a concern after Fed rate hikes and hawkish commentary, also moderated.

The good news is that confidence continued to be strong last month. Business sentiment remains close to a 21-year high, and consumer confidence remains very close to an 18-year high. Although job growth declined, it was after a very strong month, and it remained at healthy levels. Longer-term interest rates, which had been a concern after a spike, also moderated. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

The good news is that confidence remained strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in September to a 21-year high and, despite a small pullback, remains very close to that level. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. Even better, job growth rebounded significantly after a weak month. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

The good news is that confidence was strong last month. Business sentiment bounced back in a big way, to a 21-year high. Consumer confidence rose even further, to an 18-year high. But the less good news is that job growth weakened on a monthly basis and interest rates rose. For both, though, there are other factors to consider. Job growth, for example, was revised up significantly for previous months, more than offsetting the monthly shortfall and keeping the annual growth figures healthy. Plus, rising interest rates widen the spread, reducing the chance of a yield curve inversion.