The news this month is much better than last, with the most recent economic data showing sharp increases against previously worrying downward trends. Although one month’s data won’t undo those trends, the consistency of the reversal across multiple data sets and the magnitude of the positive surprises are very encouraging.

In yesterday’s post, we concluded that a recession is the biggest and most consequential indicator of a bear market. The next obvious question is, how can we spot a recession coming?

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. The news this month is good. Some potentially worrying downward trends have continued to reverse, suggesting that the weakness of the past couple of quarters is abating.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. On the whole, some of the worrying downward movement has reversed, suggesting that risks may be starting to retreat. The change in consumer confidence metric remains below zero, but even that may be stabilizing. We’re also seeing some signs of stabilization in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. After flashing a yellow light for the last several months, the change in consumer confidence indicator has declined even further, moving closer to the worry zone. Some signs of weakness are also appearing in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the third month in a row, the consumer confidence indicator is flashing a yellow light. Despite some improvement last month, the data has declined again, which is worrying.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. Last month, we got our first yellow light (in consumer confidence), which continues this month despite substantial improvement in that area. Although there were some indications of weakness in other parts of the economy in December, we also saw positive signs, notably in employment. Overall, the picture this month is somewhat better than last month.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the first time since I started this update, we now have a yellow light—in consumer confidence—along with some other signs of weakness.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

We have actually seen some moves worth watching since last month, with signs of slowing, although the overall take remains positive.