The data for May was mixed. The weak areas—in employment and interest rates—suggest that we might be approaching the end of the recovery cycle. On the other hand, both consumer and business confidence remained high in May, suggesting that the end is likely to be a ways away. Although the data bears monitoring, all of our measures remain in green-light territory, supported by the strength in April’s reports.

Economic data in April was mixed, with first-quarter weakness lingering in some risk indicators. Overall, though, the news was positive, and most forward-looking indicators we track bounced back from decreases in March. Given the good news in the employment and service sectors, two of the indicators here, it is very likely that the weakness in the first quarter, including March, was seasonal rather than the start of a negative trend. As a result, all of our indicators remain in green-light territory.

In March, many of the economic indicators we track experienced slight pullbacks. Given recent positive trends—and the fact that most of the metrics remain in healthy territory—I’m not that concerned. Although the weakness is certainly worth monitoring in case it becomes the start of a larger trend, all of our indicators remain in the green-light zone.

The data for February was positive across the board, recovering from some slight pullbacks the previous month. The indicators we track here continue to point toward economic expansion, which is encouraging following the downtrend established in 2016. This marks the fourth straight month of positive data, indicating that the current uptrend may be here to stay.

The news this month is good once again, with all indicators pointing to continued expansion, despite a small pullback from January levels in some cases. Based on the latest data, the downtrend that developed in 2016 continues to reverse. The consistency of the reversal across multiple data sets and the positive levels of the data are encouraging. 

The news this month continues to be good, with more positive data almost across the board. This is the second month of reversal against the downtrend that developed in 2016, which suggests a real change of course. Although we need more data to be fully confident, the consistency of the positive reversal across multiple data sets and the magnitude of the positive surprises are very encouraging.

After significant bouncebacks in the major indicators over the past couple of months, we saw a bit of a pullback in several components of the data in October. With signs of slowing job growth and a drop in consumer confidence, the positive changes in trend we hoped for last month may have been put on hold.

After the bad news last month, several major economic indicators have bounced back significantly. The service sector was the biggest positive surprise, but manufacturing also moved back into expansion territory, and consumer confidence jumped up in a big way. Although job growth was somewhat below expectations, it remained at a healthy level.

After the good news a month ago, several of the major economic indicators I track are moving downward once again. The service sector was the biggest negative surprise, but job growth also came in below expectations. While other news was positive, particularly in the realm of consumer confidence, and there are no signs of immediate trouble, weak data for the business sector suggests the recent rebound may have been only temporary.

The economic news this month remains good, largely validating last month’s positive moves and increasing the chance that recent downward trends are changing. Although two months of data aren’t quite enough to declare victory—particularly since some gains were given back—the continuation of the positive trends is very encouraging.