The Independent Market Observer

Italy: Reflections from an Informed Observer

June 21, 2018

Brad here. One of the problems we have in the U.S. is that we are largely forced to rely on the media to cover events abroad. While useful, this reporting can miss important details about what is really going on, as anyone who has been at an event and then later read coverage can attest.

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What’s Going on with Emerging Markets?

June 12, 2018

With emerging markets hitting the headlines once again, today we have a great piece from Commonwealth analyst Anu Gaggar on what is going on and—more important—what to do about it. Take it away, Anu! — Brad

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Black Swans!

June 6, 2018

This will be a short post as I am traveling. I spent last weekend in London, where I saw (to my delight!) not one but several black swans.

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A Look Back at the Markets in May and Ahead to June

June 5, 2018

As we head further into June, let’s take a moment to look back at May’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

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Memorial Day Reflections 2018

May 25, 2018

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, I would like to take a moment to honor members of the U.S. military for their service and their sacrifice. I wrote the following post in 2015, although the sentiment remains true today.

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How I Plan to Invest

May 18, 2018

After going through my investment thought processes over the past couple of days, today I am going to outline—in general—what I actually plan to do with my excess cash. So, let’s revisit some of the ideas we’ve talked about this week.

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Where Can We Beat the Market?

May 17, 2018

We closed yesterday’s post on whether markets are efficient with the conclusion that it could be possible to beat the market. But, to do so, we would need either better information or to view things differently—specifically referencing time horizons as one way to do that. Let’s start with a couple of areas where better information is a real possibility. Then, we’ll take a deeper look at the second idea, which is both more subtle and more interesting.

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Are Markets Efficient?

May 16, 2018

We closed yesterday’s post on how to invest with the question of whether markets were efficient—and what that would mean for how we invest. A foundational assumption of most investment theories is that markets are efficient, which is to say that all information is reflected in an asset’s price. If this holds true, then it shouldn’t be possible to beat the market because—by definition—everything that could affect prices is already accounted for.

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A Longer-Term Look at Oil

May 11, 2018

After writing yesterday’s post on the price of oil, I thought it might be useful to take a longer-term look at the behavior of oil. I think this will provide some context to yesterday’s discussion, as well as to future developments. To start, let’s look at the price history over the past 30 years.

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The Price of Oil: Is It Time to Worry?

May 10, 2018

Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent decision by the U.S. to reimpose sanctions on Iran has rattled markets even further. We know that oil prices are a key risk indicator for the economy, but is it time to start worrying? Plus, what do higher oil prices mean—if anything—for the financial markets?

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