One of the important concerns we face today is the deficit. Although it has been overshadowed recently by the headlines on trade, it is actually a potentially bigger problem and is definitely a more certain one. As such, we need to take a look at exactly what the problem is, what it could mean to our investments, and perhaps most important, whether the problem is solvable—or not.

As we start the second half of 2018, we find ourselves in a much different place than we were at the end of the first quarter. Back then, we were worried about a slowdown, and markets had pulled back. Now, despite very real policy concerns, the economy looks considerably healthier than it did then. Indeed, the markets have proven to be remarkably resilient in the face of growing policy risks.

In considering what the third quarter will look like, it is worth taking a more detailed look back at Q2 2018 and how it reversed a fairly weak first quarter.

As we begin July, let’s take a look back at the markets in June, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

Whether it is in the Comments section of this blog, the Have a Question? form you see on the right, e-mails, or everyday conversations, people ask me a lot of great questions. It’s just the nature of the work I’m in. But since these questions come in from so many different places, I thought it would be useful to accumulate them—and my responses—and share them here for the benefit of all my readers. Today, we have two reader questions, so let’s dive right in.

Recently, I have gotten a couple of questions about the inversion of the yield curve, prompted by media coverage. On the theory that one question means one hundred people would like to know, let’s take a look at this important indicator, what it means, and what it doesn’t mean.

Today's post is going out a bit later than usual, as I’m experiencing some problems related to technology and distance. You see, I am lucky enough to be at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference, which is taking place on a cruise ship now located in the Gulf of Alaska. It is pretty close to the middle of nowhere from a tech standpoint. Wi-Fi, when we have it, is spotty. It is surprising to me just how much of a difference this makes in my life. My name is Brad, and I have an Internet problem. Something to think about when I return!

Yesterday was a bad day for the U.S. stock market. But is it time to worry yet? The short answer is, “probably not.” “Not” because the economic and earnings fundamentals remain sound. “Probably” because the slow progression of trade worries may be starting to shake market confidence. The longer answer, however, gets more into the details.

After our series on tariffs and trade wars, one topic remains that doesn’t really fit into that discussion: China and technology. One of the very real issues that often comes up in trade talks is what the U.S. can or should do about the fact that China is making a deliberate attempt, by hook or by crook, to acquire technology that it can use to compete with the U.S. Surely, this problem has to be considered when we look at trade.

Brad here. One of the problems we have in the U.S. is that we are largely forced to rely on the media to cover events abroad. While useful, this reporting can miss important details about what is really going on, as anyone who has been at an event and then later read coverage can attest.

With emerging markets hitting the headlines once again, today we have a great piece from Commonwealth analyst Anu Gaggar on what is going on and—more important—what to do about it. Take it away, Anu! — Brad