March’s data continued to be good overall, although there was some pullback from February’s very strong reports. Job growth slowed substantially, which was the most notable concern. This is most likely not an immediate problem, however, as long-term trends remain favorable. More worrying is that while confidence remains high, the trend appears to be peaking for both consumers and business. Again, this is more of a change in trend rather than an immediate concern. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful, despite the recent rate increase. Overall, this month’s economic data indicates that growth continues, although it may have peaked.

February’s data continued to be quite good. We saw improvements in many areas, particularly in employment, suggesting continued and possibly accelerating growth into 2018. Job growth jumped substantially, coming in well above expectations, and both consumer and business confidence remained at very high levels. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, and recent increases in long-term rates steepened the yield curve—often a positive sign. Overall, this month’s strong economic data indicates that the weakness at the end of 2017 has passed, although policy remains a concern, particularly around trade.

January’s data was quite good, and improvements in many areas suggest ongoing growth into 2018. Job growth picked back up, and both consumer and business confidence pushed higher. Fed policy remains stimulative, and recent increases in long-term rates steepened the yield curve—often a positive sign. Overall, this month’s data indicates that some of the weakness of the past couple of months may be passing and that the end of the cycle may not be as close as that data had suggested. Some trends do continue to be somewhat worrisome, however, so we’ll be keeping an eye on the economic risks.

December’s data remained solid on an absolute basis, suggesting ongoing growth into 2018. With job growth showing signs of a slowdown and consumer and business confidence exhibiting signs of topping, however, the momentum of late 2017 may be fading. Fed policy remains stimulative, although less so than in previous months, but pending expected rate hikes may also start to erode that momentum.

As expected, November’s data showed some negative effects as the post-hurricane bounce of October moved out of the economic data. Still, the news continues to be positive. November’s results remain supportive of strong growth, with job growth coming in above expectations and confidence staying at high levels for both business and consumers. Fed policy, despite the expected rate hikes ahead, remains stimulative, although less so than in previous months.

As we work our way through the effects of the hurricanes on the economic data, the news remains very positive. October’s results largely preserved or even improved on September’s strong data, with job growth rebounding and confidence at high levels for both business and consumers. Fed policy, despite the expected rate hikes ahead, remains stimulative.

Despite the impact of the hurricanes (in many respects, because of them), September’s data came in surprisingly positive. The headline figures were certainly affected by the storms, but the underlying details remained solid.

August’s data was mixed, as improvements in business and consumer confidence were offset by a flattening yield curve and jobs numbers that were weaker than expected. These results were mildly disappointing. But the overall positive trends and, in particular, the high levels of confidence point toward faster growth toward the end of the year. 

July’s data was largely positive, with improvements in employment and consumer confidence leading the way. With unemployment at a 16-year low and no signs of slowing, the strength of the labor market is continuing to power the current recovery. While business confidence showed some signs of softening, overall conditions remain healthy. 

The data for June was generally positive, with a rebound in job growth and a surprise increase in business confidence supported by continued high levels of consumer confidence. After a run of weak data in the past couple of months, the June rebound is a good sign. Although there is still a gap between confidence and actual hard data, the persistence of confidence suggests that most economic factors remain positive—and that the current expansion is likely to continue.