The Independent Market Observer

Boom Times Ahead (Did I Really Just Say That?)

September 15, 2016

I’ve been traveling this week, spending a day in Washington talking with the press and then speaking this morning at the Financial Planning Association conference. These trips are always useful in that I get a chance to bounce ideas off a lot of people in the real world. They can also be surprising. Not so much in the questions I’m asked—people are worried about the economy, worried about the markets, wondering what’s next—but in what comes out of my mouth when I answer them.

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What About the National Debt?

August 30, 2016

Back in the office after my vacation, the news is generally good. Economic stats continue to surprise to the upside, markets are close to all-time highs, and the Labor Day weekend is coming. So, of course, as Eeyore, my thoughts are turning to things to worry about.

I’m not the only one either. A reader recently wrote in asking, “What about the national debt?”

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The Day I Broke My Brain (Er, Smartphone)

August 3, 2016

I dropped my phone the other day, severely cracking its face. It still worked, but I felt like I was getting slivers of glass in my finger every time I used it, so I took it in for repair. The fix worked fine in the short term, but last night, the phone just died. Nothing.

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How to Spot a Bubble: 2016 Edition

July 22, 2016

It’s been almost a year since I last wrote about investment bubbles. Although there have been ample grounds for discussing the topic, I suspect that other events have seemed more pressing.

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More About Student Debt: A Justified Investment

July 21, 2016

A couple of months ago, I wrote that the student debt problem isn’t as bad as it looks on the surface. I recently found a more up-to-date take on the subject from the White House, which came to the same conclusion.

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U.S. Financial Markets: Strength Amid Global Turmoil

July 19, 2016

The last couple of weeks have been tough. Between the multiple tragedies in the U.S., the attempted coup in Turkey, Britain’s decision to exit the European Union, and the subsequent change of government there, it’s been difficult to keep an even keel.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2016

July 12, 2016

Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future. Although valuations are now high—a noted risk factor in past bear markets—markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years, which doesn’t give us much to go on timing-wise.

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Tesla Crashes, Faulty Airbags, and How We Perceive Risk

July 7, 2016

One story I’ve been following is the recent fatal crash of a Tesla Model S. The car, which was set to autopilot, apparently collided into the side of a truck while the Tesla driver was watching a movie, killing him. Since then, there have been several other Tesla crashes that may have involved the autopilot function failing while the drivers weren’t paying attention.

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Robo-Advice and the Future of the Financial Industry

June 17, 2016

The rise of automated financial advice—essentially, computer programs that rebalance your accounts—has been a hot topic in the investment industry. Blockchain technology, which could automate many functions now handled by securities exchanges, is another one. Just this morning, a colleague sent me an article about a start-up that looks to make transferring money essentially free, undercutting PayPal, which is already undercutting banks.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2016

June 8, 2016

This will be the penultimate post in our series on how to spot pending bear markets.

Although expensive valuations are a noted risk factor in past bear markets, they don’t give us much to go on timing-wise, as markets can stay expensive (or get much more expensive) for years and years.

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