The Independent Market Observer

Wall Street’s Songs of the Summer

May 20, 2016

With Memorial Day quickly approaching, it’s about time to break out the boom box and cue up the songs of summer. As a 50-year-old economist, I’m not exactly on the cutting edge of pop culture, so I consulted my younger and (much) hipper friends and colleagues, along with several websites.

Surprisingly, some recent Top 40 hits have a lot to say (intentionally or not) about the economy and the stock market.

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Managing Your Biases

May 17, 2016

Bias is a fact of life. Our view of the world is colored by preconceptions, limited or mistaken information, and recent experience. On top of that limited and distorted impression, we then have to deal with a number of well-known systemic flaws in how we think, as discussed in Daniel Kahneman’s book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

I’ve been thinking a lot about biases recently, with an eye to how to mitigate their effects.

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Thoughts on Wage Growth

May 12, 2016

This will be a short post, as I’m at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference in Hawaii this week. (Tough job, I know, but someone has to do it.)

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Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2016

May 3, 2016

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market, in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of that risk. Although the recent pullback is largely in the rearview mirror, given valuations and recent market behavior, it's still useful to keep an eye on these factors.

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3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery

April 27, 2016

In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that lower government spending has been a big factor in the slow U.S. economic recovery. But it’s not the only culprit. Today, we'll take a look at three major headwinds to economic growth and whether they're likely to continue going forward.

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Why You Should Stop Worrying About Slow Growth

April 26, 2016

This afternoon, I’m speaking to a group of investors on the subject of worry—worry about the economy, about investments, and about meeting their financial goals. A couple of years ago, we were worried about high oil prices, China taking over the world, and a weak dollar, to name a few. Now, of course, we’re much wiser: we worry about low oil prices, Chinese collapse, and the strong dollar.

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The Employment Boom Is Pretty Much Here

April 21, 2016

For well over a year, I’ve been saying that job growth is not quite in a boom, but you can see one from here. After all that time, I think that we’ve largely arrived.

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How High Are Taxes, Really?

April 15, 2016

At a conference last month, I had a discussion with a group of people who were deeply convinced that their taxes were as high as they’d ever been. I mentioned that solving the budget problems of the U.S. would require higher taxes—which wasn’t intended as a recommendation but simply a recognition of the math. The group maintained that it was impossible to raise taxes any further without crippling the economy.

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The Election and the Financial Markets

April 13, 2016

Along with Puerto Rico, the other topic readers have been inquiring about is the presidential race and the effect on the markets. Yesterday, someone asked whether she should go to cash until the political uncertainty settles down. The short answer is no, but the question itself speaks to just how concerned people are about politics.

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Where Will Economic Growth Come From?

April 8, 2016

I wrote yesterday that economic growth has historically been significantly affected by the growth of the population, and how that offers some (but not a lot) of encouragement over the next 10 years. It will help, but not as much as we need.

Another way to look at recent economic growth is to consider where that growth came from, and to see whether those trends offer any prescriptions for how we can accelerate the economy.

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