I have been keeping an eye on bitcoin prices, which are around $3,600 (as of February 14), close to the lowest level in a year. Bitcoin has clearly not run to the sky the way many buyers thought it would. But there are signs that the underlying technology—the blockchain—is starting to make progress in the real world. Bitcoin was not the real story; the technology was. Now, we are starting to see the results.

This will be a short post, as it has been a long 48 hours. I was on a red-eye flight last night, returning from the Commonwealth Retirement Symposium in Scottsdale. Before that, I was at the Commonwealth Chairman’s Retreat in Palm Beach. So, my brain is not working at peak efficiency!

We talked yesterday about the possibility of another government shutdown and the effect that could have on both business and consumer confidence. That shutdown looks to be something we will avoid. But now there is another potential confidence buster ahead being talked up in the media: an earnings recession.

Now that the dust has settled a bit, and we have some (but not all, due to the shutdown) of the year-end data, let’s take a look back at 2018. In many respects, it was a better year than it seemed.

After a terrible fourth quarter in the financial markets, we had a sizable bounce in January. Markets were up significantly, both here in the U.S. and around the world, and sentiment seemed to change markedly from pessimism to a new optimism. The question going forward is whether things have really changed that much.

With the brutally cold weather locking down large parts of the country, the hope today is that the Fed will heat up the markets by both holding rates steady (as expected) and dialing back the liquidation of its balance sheet. Personally, I think investors should be careful what they wish for. If the Fed really does slow the quantitative tightening process, in conjunction with keeping rates steady, it could be a sign of an even colder economy ahead.

I found a really interesting chart in my e-mail this morning. I think its implications extend well beyond what it actually shows, and so I thought it worth sharing. The chart is below, but the full version and discussion can be found on howmuch.net.

Yesterday, we talked about what consumer confidence might be telling us about the economy. It seems the current news is great—with confidence very high and up over the past year. But a closer look at the data showed that there are some real signs that the future might be considerably less cheerful than the current data would suggest.

As I’ve noted before on this blog, in many ways, the current economy is as good as it gets. It is bound to moderate or roll over—only to see things get even better. This scenario has been going on for some time now, to the point where I want to think about what could really signal a downturn. Could consumer confidence be one of those signals?

In a previous life, I was involved in real estate, including properties catering to the growing older population. Those properties were divided into three main categories: active adult communities, aimed at the vigorous, relatively young retirees; assisted living communities, aimed at those who wanted some extra help; and skilled nursing facilities, aimed at those who needed full-time care. Respectively, they were known in the industry as the go-gos, the slow-gos, and the no-gos.