---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (75)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (75)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/india-a-land-of-opportunities)

## [India: A Land of Opportunities](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/india-a-land-of-opportunities)

February 28, 2019

*Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, is from India and regularly goes home to visit. I am excited to share her eyewitness, informed report on what is going on there. At Commonwealth’s National Conference, I highlighted the potential opportunities in India. Here, Anu makes very clear that the opportunities are real—as are the risks. Take it away, Anu!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/india-a-land-of-opportunities) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/india-a-land-of-opportunities#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/FiscalCliff_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-deficit-and-debt-a-solvable-problem)

## [The National Deficit and Debt: A Solvable Problem?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-deficit-and-debt-a-solvable-problem)

February 27, 2019

Yesterday, we talked about [the deficit and debt](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-debt-22-trillion-and-rising). We came to the conclusion that a modest deficit was not necessarily a problem. But the increase in the debt in recent years—and, this year, in the deficit—made both a problem that will have to be dealt with.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-deficit-and-debt-a-solvable-problem) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-deficit-and-debt-a-solvable-problem#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Debt%20ceiling6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-debt-22-trillion-and-rising)

## [The National Debt: $22 Trillion and Rising](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-debt-22-trillion-and-rising)

February 26, 2019

Recently, there have been a number of headlines declaring that the national debt has moved above $22 trillion, with an emphasis on how much it has gone up in recent decades.

Well, the headlines are true, as you can see in the chart below. In fact, we have added about $16 trillion since 2000, or about $900 million per year; $11 trillion since 2008, or about $1.1 trillion per year; and $2 trillion since the end of 2016.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-debt-22-trillion-and-rising) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-national-debt-22-trillion-and-rising#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Housing_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-housing-market-where-do-we-go-from-here)

## [The Housing Market: Where Do We Go from Here?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-housing-market-where-do-we-go-from-here)

February 22, 2019

*Brad here. One of the recent concerns about the economy has been the housing market slowdown. Housing involves not only home sales but also many ancillary activities (e.g., construction and financing). It is a significant economic actor in itself and a good indicator of how consumers feel overall. Housing is also at the center of many people’s economic decisions. In fact, I get more questions about housing than about anything else from employees here at Commonwealth. For today, Pete Essele has put together a good look at the current market and how it is likely to evolve over the next several months. Thanks, Pete!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-housing-market-where-do-we-go-from-here) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-housing-market-where-do-we-go-from-here#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-allure-of-emerging-market-debt)

## [The Allure of Emerging Market Debt](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-allure-of-emerging-market-debt)

February 21, 2019

*Brad here. After looking at [emerging market stock markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-emerging-markets-too-risky) yesterday, it is a good time to discuss the debt markets there. Although stock markets usually get most of the attention, Nick Follett, manager of our fixed income team at Commonwealth, makes a compelling case that debt markets deserve a look as well. I think you’ll find that this post gets a bit further into the details than we normally do, but the relative unfamiliarity of the topic makes it both necessary and worthwhile. Enjoy!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-allure-of-emerging-market-debt) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-allure-of-emerging-market-debt#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-emerging-markets-too-risky)

## [Are Emerging Markets Too Risky?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-emerging-markets-too-risky)

February 20, 2019

*Brad here. One of the questions I’ve been getting recently has been whether international markets still make sense, with particular concerns around whether they are too risky. Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, makes a strong case that emerging markets still make sense—in many more ways now than in years past. I think she raises some excellent points and makes a strong case. Enjoy!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-emerging-markets-too-risky) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-emerging-markets-too-risky#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Debt%20ceiling4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-beyond-bitcoin-the-next-step-for-the-blockchain)

## [Moving Beyond Bitcoin: The Next Step for the Blockchain](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-beyond-bitcoin-the-next-step-for-the-blockchain)

February 15, 2019

I have been keeping an eye on bitcoin prices, which are around $3,600 (as of February 14), close to the lowest level in a year. Bitcoin has clearly not run to the sky the way many buyers thought it would. But there are signs that the underlying technology—the blockchain—is starting to make progress in the real world. Bitcoin was not the real story; the technology was. Now, we are starting to see the results.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-beyond-bitcoin-the-next-step-for-the-blockchain) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/moving-beyond-bitcoin-the-next-step-for-the-blockchain#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/ConsumerSpending_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumers-not-showing-the-love-this-valentines-day)

## [Consumers Not Showing the Love This Valentine’s Day](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumers-not-showing-the-love-this-valentines-day)

February 14, 2019

This will be a short post, as it has been a long 48 hours. I was on a red-eye flight last night, returning from the Commonwealth Retirement Symposium in Scottsdale. Before that, I was at the Commonwealth Chairman’s Retreat in Palm Beach. So, my brain is not working at peak efficiency!

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumers-not-showing-the-love-this-valentines-day) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumers-not-showing-the-love-this-valentines-day#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/FiscalCliff_1.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-recession-ahead-not-so-fast)

## [Earnings Recession Ahead? Not So Fast](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-recession-ahead-not-so-fast)

February 13, 2019

We talked yesterday about the possibility of [another government shutdown](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/government-shutdown-2.0) and the effect that could have on both business and consumer confidence. That shutdown looks to be something we will avoid. But now there is another potential confidence buster ahead being talked up in the media: an earnings recession.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-recession-ahead-not-so-fast) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/earnings-recession-ahead-not-so-fast#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/USeconomy_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2018-an-economic-review)

## [2018: An Economic Review](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2018-an-economic-review)

February 6, 2019

Now that the dust has settled a bit, and we have some (but not all, due to the shutdown) of the year-end data, let’s take a look back at 2018. In many respects, it was a better year than it seemed.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2018-an-economic-review) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2018-an-economic-review#comments-listing)

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- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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