The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, February 3, 2015

February 3, 2015

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think the Federal Reserve is likely to start raising short-term rates in June in an interview today, February 3

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Making Sense of Mutual Fund Gains and Losses

February 2, 2015

Driving in Massachusetts can be confusing. South Boston, for example, is actually east of the city, while East Boston is to the north. And the road labels can be just as bad. There is a section of a major highway, where two roads converge, where you can actually be headed south on one highway and north on another at the same time.

Hard to believe—and even harder to describe when you try to give directions—but true. Don’t try this if you’re not from around here.

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Isn’t as Bad as It Looks

January 30, 2015

In light of this morning’s somewhat disappointing U.S. growth number—2.6 percent for the fourth quarter of last year—I expect we’re in for another round of economic doomsaying. Before we get too upset, though, it’s worth looking at the fourth-quarter GDP number in a bit more depth.

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The U.S. Economy: 5 Key Stories

January 29, 2015

Between oil prices, the Greek election, and everything else, quite a bit has happened around the world over the past several weeks. Let’s take a look at five recent events and what they might mean for the U.S. economy.

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More Market Turbulence

January 28, 2015

Yesterday's largish market pullback has caused many to wonder whether more trouble lies ahead.

As always, let's start with some context: At the end of the day yesterday, the market was down about 3 percent from its all-time high, which is nothing to worry about.
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Storm Report: About to Be Crushed by Glaciers

January 27, 2015

Today’s post will be a short one for two reasons. First, Commonwealth’s Massachusetts office is closed due to the snowstorm slamming New England.

Second, of course, is because my home, my family, and I are about to be crushed by the oncoming glaciers. So I hear, anyway.

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Greek Election Creates Unease in Europe

January 26, 2015

Europe just got quite a bit more uncertain. The election in Greece over the weekend brought to power the Syriza party, which has vowed to challenge the existing Greek financial bailout, an implicit threat to the current economic consensus throughout Europe.

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The ECB Pulls the Trigger on Stimulus

January 23, 2015

The top story yesterday, at least in financial and investing circles, was the European Central Bank's decision to launch its own version of quantitative easing (QE). In short, the central bank will buy bonds in order to force down interest rates and encourage business investment and consumer spending.

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Why Did My Investments Do Badly in 2014?

January 22, 2015

I’ve had a lot of conversations recently about 2014 portfolio performance. Investors are reviewing their results, comparing them with the performance of U.S. stocks, and asking the question in the headline: Why did my investments do badly last year?

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Japan: The Outside View

January 21, 2015

Now that we've looked at China and Europe, it’s time to examine Japan’s economic future.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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