The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. (245)

Another Great Employment Report, But Can It Be Trusted?

February 6, 2015

When I give talks or interviews, I’m often perceived as bullish on the U.S. recovery. In my own view, though, I’m neither bullish nor bearish, but simply driven by the data.

Others see it differently, especially when it comes to the employment story. Just this past week, the chairman of Gallup wrote a column titled “The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment.” After seeing that piece, several readers reached out to question what they see as my optimism, asking, in effect, Really? Can things really be that good?

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The Outside View: India

February 5, 2015

As we discussed yesterday, Brazil is different from the developed economies in Europe, Japan, and even China, and it presents a different kind of opportunity for investors. With an economy halfway between those of Brazil and China, and a set of advantages that both other countries lack, India is potentially an even more interesting opportunity.

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The Outside View: Brazil

February 4, 2015

Since it's a fairly quiet news day, I want to return to our "outside view" series on countries that matter around the world. So far, we’ve considered China, Europe, and Japan, but today we’ll shift gears and look at a very different country, Brazil.

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Market Thoughts for February 2015 [Video]

February 4, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the ongoing U.S. economic recovery, the difficult month U.S. financial markets just experienced, and changes in the global markets.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2015

February 3, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we move into the year, though, the economic forecast remains bright.

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Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, February 3, 2015

February 3, 2015

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think the Federal Reserve is likely to start raising short-term rates in June in an interview today, February 3.

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Making Sense of Mutual Fund Gains and Losses

February 2, 2015

Driving in Massachusetts can be confusing. South Boston, for example, is actually east of the city, while East Boston is to the north. And the road labels can be just as bad. There is a section of a major highway, where two roads converge, where you can actually be headed south on one highway and north on another at the same time.

Hard to believe—and even harder to describe when you try to give directions—but true. Don’t try this if you’re not from around here.

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Fourth-Quarter GDP Isn’t as Bad as It Looks

January 30, 2015

In light of this morning’s somewhat disappointing U.S. growth number—2.6 percent for the fourth quarter of last year—I expect we’re in for another round of economic doomsaying. Before we get too upset, though, it’s worth looking at the fourth-quarter GDP number in a bit more depth.

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The U.S. Economy: 5 Key Stories

January 29, 2015

Between oil prices, the Greek election, and everything else, quite a bit has happened around the world over the past several weeks. Let’s take a look at five recent events and what they might mean for the U.S. economy.

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More Market Turbulence

January 28, 2015

Yesterday's largish market pullback has caused many to wonder whether more trouble lies ahead.

As always, let's start with some context: At the end of the day yesterday, the market was down about 3 percent from its all-time high, which is nothing to worry about.

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