The Independent Market Observer

Will She or Won’t She? Janet Yellen and Interest Rates

February 24, 2015

Janet YellenAll eyes (at least in the economics world) are on Janet Yellen today as she sits down to update Congress on what the Federal Reserve is doing.

What will she say? When are rates going up?

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The Outside View: The U.S. Labor Market

February 23, 2015

I’ve maintained for some time that the U.S. labor market is doing very well. Although it's too soon to call it a "boom," that isn’t out of the question given job-creation levels unseen since the mid-1990s and a drop in the unemployment rate back to normal levels.

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Bubble Trouble?

February 20, 2015

I wrote yesterday about gaps opening up in the stock market, and how the tech space in particular is starting to look a lot like a bubble.

Among other things, I mentioned that the stock market isn’t in a bubble yet because companies are making money. Later in the day, though, I saw a story pointing out that 71 percent of companies that went public last year were unprofitable, the highest level since 2000 (when 80 percent weren't making money).

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Are We in Tech Bubble Territory?

February 19, 2015

A headline on CNBC yesterday morning caught my eye: “Nasdaq back to bubble highs.” What it meant, of course, was that the Nasdaq stock index is approaching the levels of 2000. What it said, or at least what I read, was that the tech market is back in a bubble.

I have to admit, I probably interpreted it that way because that’s what I have been thinking for some time.

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Book Review: “Flashpoints,” by George Friedman

February 18, 2015

As I’ve noted over the past couple of days, Europe is back in the headlines. The confrontation between Greece and Germany has once again captured the world’s attention with the real prospect that the eurozone could break down.

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Where Does the U.S. Fit in the European Mess?

February 17, 2015

I’m writing this in response to a comment on an earlier post about Europe, which essentially asked: Where does the U.S. fit in all this? A good question, and one that demands a further look.

Right now, the U.S. is in the process of trying to bang heads together to get a settlement between Greece (and the rest of the Southern European countries) and Germany (and the rest of the Northern European countries).

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Appearance on Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo, February 12, 2015 [Video]

February 13, 2015

In case you missed it, I was in studio for Fox Business's Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo on Thursday, February 12. We covered a lot of ground, including retail sales and employment, developments in the EU with Greece, and the U.S. markets.

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What Will the Market Return This Year?

February 13, 2015

I hope you enjoy today’s insightful post from my colleague Peter Essele. See you next week! — Brad

“What will the market return this year?” As a portfolio manager, I hear some variation of this question at the beginning of each and every calendar year. Following the requisite exchange of pleasantries, it inevitably comes up at cocktail parties, birthday get-togethers, client meetings, and even the après-ski scene.

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The Outside View: The U.S. Economy

February 12, 2015

After analyzing China, Japan, Brazil, and other economic powers around the world, we come at last to the U.S. An outside view is particularly useful here. As citizens, we tend to think we know all the details, and so we're all the more likely to be caught up in an inside view.

The benefit of looking at the other countries first is that we now have some context for judging where we stand and what that might mean. 

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The Outside View: Russia

February 11, 2015

As I mentioned yesterday, Russia’s economy basically doesn’t work without oil. Today we’ll take a deeper look at that problem, along with the potential consequences as Russia attempts to deal with it.

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