Discussing returns over the next 10 years the other day, I closed with the thought that averages aren’t the best way to express how portfolios may perform. We will certainly talk about that today, but it’s emblematic of a much bigger problem: how we measure risk.

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we continue into the year, though, the economic forecast remains promising.

As a follow-up to my post from last week, on the likely returns from bonds over the next five to ten years, I thought I’d extend that discussion to portfolios as a whole.

When we look at investment returns, we have a time-horizon problem. People in general aren’t very good at evaluating more than a year or so in each direction.

This week, I gave a talk at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference where I laid out what I thought was a pretty compelling argument for a continued and strengthening recovery. The problem with arguments like this, especially if you’re taking a position, is that the facts can blow up in your face.

To finish up the discussion of the economic context of net neutrality that I started in Monday’s post, let’s take a look at the second half of the issue. Monopoly power, which I discussed in yesterday’s post, is a problem—but maybe a short-lived one. If you take away the monopoly part of it, is charging more for some users really all that bad? Not really.

As I mentioned at the end of this Monday’s post, one conflict with net neutrality is between use-based pricing—ordering and paying for one service at a time—and the all-you-can-eat buffet. This is a pretty clear distinction, with different value propositions for each. But what makes it interesting and complex, in an economic sense, is the effect of monopoly power.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the U.S. economy, the global markets, and the recent economic rebound from earlier this year.

I am at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference this week, at one of the most beautiful properties I have ever seen. So, of course, I am sitting in a conference room listening to economic presentations. But I’m okay with that.

One of the great things about conferences like this one is that they offer the opportunity to listen to a group of sponsors present some of their most compelling investing ideas. I heard a very interesting point this morning that I’ve noted previously but not paid sufficient attention to: The return from bonds (in aggregate) is almost always very close to the initial yield.

The issue of “net neutrality” falls into the “boring but important” category that most of us normally ignore. Along with solar energy subsidies, social security wage bases, and other recondite things, it’s not visible every day but, nevertheless, does and will affect our lives.

Lost in the hand-wringing over whether, when, and how quickly the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, something very interesting is happening in the rest of the world.

In many countries in Europe—including, for the first time, Germany—interest rates have gone negative.