The Independent Market Observer

The Employment Boom Gets Louder

October 27, 2016

After taking a look at the bright side yesterday, more data has come across my desk that confirms just how reasonable (but not, of course, certain) that perspective is. One data point in particular puts some direct context around the reasons for optimism.

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Reasons to Be Cheerful About the Market

October 26, 2016

Yesterday, I wrote about the stock market risks that the AT&T/Time Warner merger might be signaling. Each month, I review market risks as suggested by several other key metrics. And over the last year or so, I’ve been giving a presentation to investors on the causal factors behind a sustained bear market.

Overall, my commentary on the markets has been decidedly risk-centric.

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What Does the AT&T/Time Warner Merger Mean for the Market?

October 25, 2016

There have been a lot of headlines in the past couple of days about the proposed mega-merger between AT&T and Time Warner. In fact, I was on CNBC yesterday discussing it. At $85 billion, this would be the sixth-largest merger of all time, so it is indeed a big deal. Does it have any larger meaning, though?

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 24, 2016 [Video]

October 25, 2016

Do big deals signal a market peak? Yesterday afternoon, I was on CNBC’s Power Lunch offering thoughts on the market amid the recent AT&T and Time Warner merger. 

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Monday Update: Industry Does Better as Housing Slows

October 24, 2016

Last week’s reports covered a wide range of the economy.

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What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

October 21, 2016

The headlines this week are all about Donald Trump’s refusal to accept his potential defeat in the U.S. presidential race. He has reserved the right to contest the results of the election, doubling down on his claims that the process is rigged. Although this is the first time the issue has arisen in the presidential forum, claims of data rigging have been quite common in recent years.

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Inflation and Everything Else

October 20, 2016

It’s been a while since I wrote about inflation, the general increase in prices that makes everything cost more. Inflation has been so low recently that it hasn’t really been a priority. Indeed, there’s been more concern about inflation running too low than too high.

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Remembering Black Monday

October 19, 2016

Amazingly enough, after the concern about another Black Monday, the 1987 drop's anniversary today hasn’t generated much media attention. It’s almost like it never happened.

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For Halloween, Some Thoughts on Active Management

October 18, 2016

One of the investment industry’s most famous magazine covers is the August 1979 Businessweek that proclaimed “The Death of Equities”—right before one of the longest and largest bull markets of all time began. It was a perfect example of the investment truism known as the magazine cover effect: when something is widely enough known to be on a magazine cover, it’s already fully priced into the market (and likely about to reverse).

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Monday Update: The Consumer Is Back (Sort Of)

October 17, 2016

Last week’s reports remained modestly positive, although consumer demand showed signs of a slowdown.   

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