The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, November 9, 2016 [Video]

November 9, 2016

This morning, I was on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange discussing deregulation and offering thoughts on market volatility in the wake of the presidential election.

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Get Out and Vote!

November 8, 2016

It’s finally Election Day, the moment when all the sound and fury comes down to one thing: a voter, standing in a booth, making a decision about how he or she envisions the future. Everything up until now has been so much noise, but this is what matters.

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Monday Update: Generally Good News Points to Continuing Growth

November 7, 2016

Last week’s wide-ranging data started to give us an idea of whether economic growth (and perhaps even faster growth) continues.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2016

November 4, 2016

After significant bouncebacks in the major indicators over the past couple of months, we saw a bit of a pullback in several components of the data in October. With signs of slowing job growth and a drop in consumer confidence, the positive changes in trend we hoped for last month may have been put on hold.

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In Austin, Grateful to Be Giving Back

November 3, 2016

Today will be a short post. I’m in Austin, Texas, at the Commonwealth National Conference, and I’m heading out early this morning to participate in our giving back initiative. 

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3 Big Themes that Won't End with the Election

November 2, 2016

After months of election hype and angst, next week we should know who the next president and Congress will be. What then? 

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Market Thoughts for November 2016 [Video]

November 2, 2016

As expected, October was a tough month for markets, as uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and the future of interest rates continued to rattle investors.

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Election Countdown: One Week to Go

November 1, 2016

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece on what the election means for investors’ portfolios. Longer term, the answer was not much. Shorter term, there’s potential for market volatility, but the fundamental fact is that the U.S. economy should continue to grow, and financial markets—and investors—should continue to benefit from that growth.

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Monday Update: Amid Disappointing Data, Economy Still Growing

October 31, 2016

Last week’s economic data was a mixed bag, focusing mostly on the consumer but also touching on business and the economy as a whole.

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Strong GDP Report: Treat or Trick?

October 28, 2016

This is the season of ghosts and goblins, scary monsters, and small children roaming around in packs to loot the neighborhood of candy. In other words, it’s very much like the typical investment environment, with everyone looking to get something sweet but nervous about what might leap out of the bushes.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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