The Independent Market Observer

Post-Election Bond Rates and the Stock Market

November 22, 2016

The other day, we talked about the bond market and the effects of the recent sharp increase in interest rates. Although the immediate impact was real, we concluded that the adjustment was more a return to normal than something worse. In other words, nothing to worry about.

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Monday Update: Consumers Still Shopping

November 21, 2016

Last week’s economic data offered an encouraging picture of where the Trump era will be starting from.

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2017 Forecast: Things Are Looking Up

November 18, 2016

I usually begin thinking about my economic forecast for the next year around the third quarter. At that point, the current year is largely on the books, and we know enough to start looking ahead a bit.

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Post-Election Bond Yields and Fixed Income

November 17, 2016

Since the election, much of the financial commentary has centered on the stock market's surprising surge. In fact, though, the largest changes by far have been in expectations for interest rates, which, in turn, have affected the bond markets.

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The Trouble with “Low-Volatility” Strategies, Part II

November 16, 2016

Brad here. Back in August, Peter Essele, a lead portfolio manager at Commonwealth, wrote a very timely piece on the risks involved with low-volatility strategies. When we were talking the other day, he suggested writing a follow-up on that—and given what has happened since his original post, I agreed it was a great idea.

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Trump’s Policies and the Law of Unintended Consequences

November 15, 2016

As I mentioned last week, Donald Trump’s administration could have a number of positive effects on the U.S. economy. With government spending growth set to ramp up—and taxes and regulations set to be cut—you can almost see a potential boom forming. It could be a good couple of years to come.

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Monday Update: Better Than Expected

November 14, 2016

Last week’s big economic and market news was the election. What might it tell us about the future? Let’s take a closer look.

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The Trump Era: What Happens Now?

November 11, 2016

As predicted, the world did not end upon Donald Trump’s election to the presidency. In fact, from an economic and market perspective, it has appeared to be good news, at least so far. Of course, it’s still early days, and the question now is, What happens next?

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The Trump Bounce and the Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2016

November 10, 2016

Although many were predicting a significant pullback on Mr. Trump’s election, we, in fact, got a fairly significant advance. What’s up with that? I suspect there are several reasons.

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Election Surprise: For the Economy, Maybe Just Another Bump in the Road

November 9, 2016

We woke up this morning to a new era.

For the past several years, the United States has had either a Democrat-controlled government or a divided government. As a result of yesterday’s vote, Republicans will soon control the presidency, the Senate, and the House.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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