The Independent Market Observer

Dow 20K: Just a Number?

January 26, 2017

It was less than two months ago—58 days to be exact—that I last wrote about stock market records. At that point, I noted that the market was at record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average having crossed 19,000 and the S&P 500 above 2,200. And here we are again, with the Dow over 20,000 and the S&P over 2,300. Has anything changed?

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Trump’s Trade Agenda: Benefits and Costs

January 25, 2017

The discussion about the economy lately has revolved around what the new administration might do in several key areas, including trade. In his inauguration speech, President Trump made it very clear that he intends to carry out the promises he campaigned on, and his recent decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) shows that he’s serious. Next up, NAFTA.

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Rates May Rise Faster Than Anyone Expects

January 24, 2017

As the Trump administration gets under way, there are two major economic concerns to keep an eye on. The first is trade, which we will discuss tomorrow. The second doesn’t have anything to do with the President, at least directly. It is monetary policy—specifically, how and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

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Monday Update: Growing But Slowing

January 23, 2017

Last week’s news was mixed, both in the data reported and in the trends, suggesting the economy slowed into the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the pace has decelerated somewhat, improvement does continue and remains likely to do so into 2017.

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Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, January 23, 2017 [Video]

January 23, 2017

In the early days post-inauguration, will financials keep doing well? Will we continue to see the kind of outperformance that we’ve witnessed recently?

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The Economy Under President Trump

January 20, 2017

Today, America carried out the peaceful transition of power that is at the heart of our democracy—except that we don’t actually have a democracy but a republic. In a democracy, the people make the decisions. In a republic, they elect representatives who make the decisions for them. This is a subtle but important difference, and one that represents a very deliberate decision by the founders, who distrusted popular sentiment.

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Earnings, Valuations, and the Stock Market

January 19, 2017

In yesterday’s post, I discussed how corporate earnings will likely continue to improve, which should be good for the stock market on a fundamental basis. That’s not the whole story, however.

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Q4 Earnings: Expect to Beat Expectations?

January 18, 2017

The key driver of the stock market, over the long term, is earnings. In the short term as well, earnings can be the primary driver of market performance. So, each quarter, it makes sense to review whether earnings are doing well or poorly, and why.

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Monday Update: Retail Spending Weaker Than Expected

January 17, 2017

After a strong start, 2017 slowed down considerably in terms of economic data. Last week’s news, which centered on the consumer, largely disappointed. Although it’s too early to get very concerned, the numbers suggest that higher confidence levels aren’t yet translating into actual growth.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2017

January 13, 2017

Just as I do with the economy, I review the market each month for warning signs of trouble in the near future.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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