The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for March 2017 [Video]

March 1, 2017

February was another "wow" month for markets. All three major U.S. indices rose substantially, and markets around the world also did quite well.

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Trump’s Address to Congress: What to Watch For

February 28, 2017

Tonight, President Trump will give his first address to Congress—essentially a State of the Union. He has a lot to talk about, and it will be interesting to see what he chooses to focus on.

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Monday Update: Housing Continues to Improve, Fed Remains Confident

February 27, 2017

A limited amount of economic data was released last week, but what we did get was generally positive. The housing sector continues to post solid growth, and the Federal Reserve minutes showed confidence in the recovery.

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The Price Is Right—Or Is It?

February 24, 2017

We left off yesterday with the conclusion that the price you pay for an investment can determine your returns over time. It's a commonsense principle: other things being equal, someone who pays more for an investment will, over time, do less well than someone who pays less.

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What Explains Long-Term Returns?

February 23, 2017

We concluded yesterday that time, in and of itself, does not explain how investments should behave over the next several years. The question now, of course, is what does?

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Another Look at the Long Run

February 22, 2017

Last week, we started thinking about what the long run really means for investors. It was a decent first cut, but the graphs I used to illustrate my point were not as useful as I had hoped. Today we’ll take a more numerical look at the argument.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumers Lead the Way

February 21, 2017

Last week’s flurry of economic data was generally positive, either coming in surprisingly strong or much better than it looked. Both rising prices and faster consumer spending growth reflected an improving economy.

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Thinking About the Long Run

February 17, 2017

As I wrote earlier this week, for investors, the difference between the short term and the long term is not as obvious as it would seem. Where does one end and the other begin?

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Why Isn’t Political Turmoil Shaking the Market?

February 16, 2017

I spend most of my time thinking about economics and the economy, but over the past several years, that has increasingly included a healthy side helping of politics.

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What a Difference a Year Makes

February 15, 2017

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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