The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Confidence Drops by Most in a Year, Housing Disappoints

December 31, 2018

Despite the Christmas holiday, last week brought some important economic news. With another holiday on the horizon, this week won’t be as busy, but there are still a couple of economic reports worth paying attention to.

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2019 Market Outlook [Video]

December 28, 2018

As we approach the new year, hiring is strong and both business and consumer confidence remain high. With these solid fundamentals, the financial markets are likely to respond. Earnings should go up, so we should expect to see rising stock prices as well.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 27, 2018 [Video]

December 27, 2018

Are we still experiencing normal market volatility? I discussed this and more on CNBC's Power Lunch today. 

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The Pros and Cons of Bank Loans

December 27, 2018

Brad here. Today, we have another detailed look from one of our great investment analysts, Nicholas Follett. Just as with Anu’s take on emerging markets yesterday, Nick provides an in-depth discussion of one of the most popular asset classes out there—including why you might be interested and what you need to watch out for. He goes into a bit more detail than we normally do here, but consider this an example of what really goes on at Commonwealth as we dig deep for our clients and investors. Enjoy!

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What the Next World Means for Emerging Markets

December 26, 2018

Brad here. As part of my Next World series on this blog, I have been discussing the themes and implications with Commonwealth analysts to try to determine what it will mean, over time, for how we invest. Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, put together this piece, which I think is worth sharing. Take it away, Anu!

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Monday Update: Housing Better Than Expected, Other Indicators Disappoint

December 24, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with several reports on housing, a look at durable goods demand, and the consumer income and spending report. This week is a short one, due to the Christmas holiday, but there are a couple of economic reports worth paying attention to.

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Fed to Markets: “Drop Dead”

December 20, 2018

Of course, here I am riffing on the famous headline published after President Ford refused to bail out New York City (see below). Yesterday, there is no doubt that markets were expecting a bailout from the Fed—and threw a tantrum when they didn’t get it.

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Pop! 2018 Bubble of the Year Award

December 19, 2018

It’s that moment you’ve all been waiting for—the 2018 Bubble of the Year Award (“the Bubby”)! This long-standing tradition (as of last year) brings together the strongest and weakest investment stories for a no-holds-barred match to see which stands out as the bubble of the year. This year, we have several strong contestants.

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Consumer Debt: Not as Bad as You Think?

December 18, 2018

Several weeks ago, an advisor asked me to take a deep look at debt in the economy. I thought this was a great idea, both timely and important. In fact, I meant to get to it sooner but, well, things happened. When I did start to investigate, I realized that “debt” was many different topics, deserving of several posts. So, here we are, beginning a series that will resume in January. Fortunately, the news is not actually all that bad in most areas. Even in the ones where it is very bad (e.g., U.S. government borrowing), there are reasons to, if not be cheerful, than at least not to despair.

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Monday Update: Inflation a Bit High, Consumers Earning and Spending

December 17, 2018

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, starting with prices. This week will also be active, with several reports on housing, a look at durable goods demand, and the consumer income and spending report.

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