Several weeks ago, an advisor asked me to take a deep look at debt in the economy. I thought this was a great idea, both timely and important. In fact, I meant to get to it sooner but, well, things happened. When I did start to investigate, I realized that “debt” was many different topics, deserving of several posts. So, here we are, beginning a series that will resume in January. Fortunately, the news is not actually all that bad in most areas. Even in the ones where it is very bad (e.g., U.S. government borrowing), there are reasons to, if not be cheerful, than at least not to despair.

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, starting with prices. This week will also be active, with several reports on housing, a look at durable goods demand, and the consumer income and spending report.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for December? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The good news is that confidence continued to be strong last month. Business sentiment remains close to a 21-year high, and consumer confidence remains very close to an 18-year high. Although job growth declined, it was after a very strong month, and it remained at healthy levels. Longer-term interest rates, which had been a concern after a spike, also moderated. Overall, the economic news remains solid, which should support continued growth.

What can we expect from the market in 2019? I discussed this and more on CNBC's Power Lunch today. 

Both October and November were roller-coaster months. October took us down, and November took us further down only to bounce and finish slightly up. Now, as we move to the end of the year, we are seeing more downward movement, although there are signs that may be passing. As investors, we should probably be checking for whiplash, as this has been a wilder ride than we have seen in years.

We are now in the third month of the stock market decline, with the S&P 500 getting close to correction territory (i.e., down 10 percent from the peak). Although there have been three attempted rallies, in each case the market has declined again. From a technical perspective, important trend lines have been broken, which increases the risk that the decline could get worse. Is it time to worry?

Last week was a busy one on the economic front, with several key reports. This week’s data starts with prices and whether they indicate that inflation is picking up.

We closed the last post in this series with the observation that, even if the U.S. “won” the trade war, there would be collateral damage—both here and throughout the world. That turned out to be a timely point, as we have seen in the financial markets over the past week.

As we approach year-end and you look at your investment statements, there is bound to be much discussion about how your investments performed. As has become usual in the past couple of years, there will be questions about and comparisons between what we expected and what we actually got. In other words, with the economy doing well, why aren’t your investments doing better?