The Independent Market Observer

Market Weather Report: Spring 2017

April 4, 2017

As I sit here looking out the window, wondering if my flight this afternoon will be able to take off, I’m reminded of the old proverb “April showers bring May flowers.” With rain coming down in buckets and expected to continue all day, we have no shortage of showers here in Boston. You could say the same for the U.S. economy and financial markets.

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The Market’s April Fools’ Day Jokes

March 31, 2017

What will we look back on, six or twelve months from now, and not be able to believe we didn’t see? This is always a good question to ask, but looking at the calendar, it’s particularly apropos.

What April Fools' pranks might the market be playing on us right now?

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Today's GDP Report (and What to Expect in Q2)

March 30, 2017

As we close out the first quarter of 2017, all I can say is that it’s been a great one, economically and financially. Despite all of the worry and turmoil—in Washington, DC, and elsewhere in the world—markets have risen substantially and the economy has continued to grow.

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What About Yesterday’s Stock Market Pullback?

March 22, 2017

Yesterday, we finally saw a market decline of more than 1 percent, after a very long time without one. Is this the end of the rally?

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Is Spring on the Way for the Economy?

March 21, 2017

As the end of the first quarter approaches, expectations are high for a new burst of economic growth. With consumer confidence at the highest point since before the financial crisis, business confidence rising to very healthy levels, and job and wage growth continuing to move in the right direction, spring seems just around the corner.

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Three Steps and a Stumble

March 17, 2017

St. Patrick’s Day, at least here in the U.S., is all about the wearing of the green. Everyone is Irish today, the green beer flows, and we have a great time—until waking up the next day with a hangover. Living in Boston, with the surname McMillan, I certainly get it.

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It’s Not All About US

March 3, 2017

Most of my posts and media interviews lately have revolved around one country: the U.S. Today, we'll take a break from the “all U.S., all the time" show to look up at the rest of the world. It’s a big planet, with a lot going on.

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What a Difference a Year Makes

February 15, 2017

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana

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The Stock Market and Me: It’s Complicated

February 14, 2017

In honor of Valentine’s Day, I was going to write about how much I love the stock market. The more I thought about it, though, I realized that “It’s Complicated” is a more accurate description of our relationship. I do love the market, but we have issues.

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As 2017 Dawns, Much to Be Grateful For

December 29, 2016

As I’ve said many times before, I believe that gratitude is a foundation for both happiness and a mindful life. Every day, I write down at least three things I’m grateful for, a practice that is proven to increase well-being. Beyond that, I also try to make time every couple of months to really think through my life and all I have to be thankful for.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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